摘要
基于2005—2021年省际面板数据,结合三大调节变量构建空间杜宾模型,分析农业机械化对农业经济发展的影响。结果表明:人口老龄化、人口城镇化、人力资本以及农业机械化皆正向促进农业经济发展水平的提升,其中人口老龄化作用不显著。人力资本水平、人口城镇化负向调节了农业机械化在农业经济发展过程中发挥的积极作用,而人口老龄化显著正向调节了农业机械化对农业经济发展发挥的积极作用。受灾情况加重显著抑制了农业生产增产提质,有效灌溉面积、公路里程数及化肥施用量皆显著正向推进农业经济发展。鉴于此,提出加大农机补贴力度、支持农业生产性服务、加大农业保险等建议。
Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2005 to 2021,combined with 3 adjustment variables,a spatial Dubin model was constructed to analyze the impact of agricultural mechanization on agricultural economic development.The results showed that population aging,population urbanization,human capital and agricultural mechanization all positively promoted the development level of agricultural economy,among which population aging had no significant effect.Human capital level and population urbanization negatively moderated the positive role of agricultural mechanization in the process of agricultural economic development,while population aging significantly positively moderated the positive role of agricultural mechanization in the process of agricultural economic development.The aggravation of disaster significantly inhibited the increase and quality of agricultural production.The effective irrigation area,road mileage and fertilizer application rate all significantly promoted the development of agricultural economy.We proposed increasing subsidies for agricultural machinery,supporting productive agricultural services,and increasing agricultural insurance.
作者
叶露放
刘鹏凌
姚彤
程脂涵
Ye Lufang;Liu Pengling;Yao Tong;Cheng Zhihan(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei Anhui 230000,China)
出处
《西南林业大学学报（社会科学）》
CAS
2023年第5期50-56,共7页
Journal of Southwest Forestry University(Social Sciences)
基金
安徽农产品主产区小农户和现代农业发展衔接的路径及政策引导(AHSKZ2018D02)。
关键词
农业机械化
农业经济
杜宾模型
莫兰指数
agricultural mechanization
agricultural economy
Dubin model
Moran′s index
作者简介
第1作者:叶露放(1997-),女,硕士研究生,主要研究应用经济学。Email:1546564652@qq.com;通信作者:刘鹏凌(1971-),男,博士,教授,主要研究农业经济理论与政策。Email:2986676237@qq.com。
