“挤入”还是“挤出”:基础设施投资对居民消费的影响被引量：13

Crowding-in or Crowding-out:How Infrastructure Investment AffectsHousehold Consumption

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摘要本文构建动态模型刻画居民的消费决策并进行经验估计,识别基础设施投资对居民消费的影响。基于省级宏观数据的分析结果表明,基础设施投资不仅能通过收入渠道间接促进居民消费,还能够通过预期渠道直接促进居民消费,存在显著的“挤入”效应;但在住房供给弹性较低的省份,基础设施投资对居民消费的促进效果较弱,在财富渠道上存在“挤出”效应。基于微观家庭数据的分析发现,在住房供给弹性较低的省份,基础设施投资对房价有较强的推升效应,从而通过影响资产配置显著降低了富裕家庭的消费,这不仅对居民消费产生了负向的财富效应,而且还扩大了财富差距。本文的工作为中国宏观调控政策的相关理论研究提供了经验证据。 This paper constructs a dynamic model of household consumption decisions and accordingly designs empirical analyses to identify how infrastructure investment affects private consumption.The estimation results of provincial panel data reveal that infrastructure investment can not only indirectly promote household consumption through the income channel but also directly promote household consumption expansion through the expectations channel,with a significant"crowding-in"effect.However,the effect is significantly weaker in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity,showing the"crowding-out"pattern through the wealth channel.Household survey data provide an explanation for individual heterogeneity.Infrastructure investment has a greater pushing effect on house prices in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity.Rapid house price growth has significant"crowding-out"effects on the consumption of wealthy households.This not only significantly weakens the driving effect of infrastructure investment on aggregate household consumption,but also increases longterm wealth inequality.This paper explains how infrastructure investment affects household consumption and the corresponding role played by house prices,providing empirical evidence for theoretical studies related to macro-regulatory policies in China.

作者闫芷毓袁宇菲薛熠 Yan Zhiyu;Yuan Yufei;Xue Yi

机构地区对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出处《世界经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2023年第7期116-139,共24页 The Journal of World Economy

基金国家自然科学基金项目(71971063) 对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(19YB20)的资助。

关键词基础设施投资居民消费住房供给弹性宏观调控政策 infrastructure investment household consumption housing supply elasticity macroregulatory policies

分类号 F283 [经济管理—国民经济] F126.1 [经济管理—世界经济]

作者简介闫芷毓、通讯作者:袁宇菲、薛熠:对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京市朝阳区惠新东街10号100029,闫芷毓,电子信箱:yzy130990@163.com;袁宇菲,电子信箱:yufeiyuan@uibe.edu.cn;薛熠,电子信箱:yxue@uibe.edu.cn。