摘要
中国内地21个自贸区承担的政策任务均可分为“成为对外开放高地”的共性任务和与各自地理位置相联系的特定任务。针对广东自贸区的特定政策任务,文章基于2005—2020年的省际面板数据,使用合成控制法评估了“促进粤港货物贸易联系”这一政策目标的效果。实证结果发现,广东自贸区的成立导致了广东省对港出口占比的持续减少,这意味着广东省商品出口对香港地区依赖程度的显著下降,粤港贸易联系并没有加深。基于世界贸易组织所提供的“直接贸易成本”的分析框架和粤港贸易中的特征事实,文章对这个令人意外的实证结果给出了一个关于“追赶与替代”的经济学解释:广东自贸区的持续建设、制度创新及其向全省的复制推广,推动了广东省在跨境贸易便利化和国际航运效率等方面的快速进步,缩小了与香港地区之间的差距,导致广东省出口企业选择“直接出口”的贸易成本显著下降了,于是广东省出口中原本需要借助香港地区转口的一个较大部分,被“直接出口”替代了。粤港贸易联系的“弱化”,说明粤港之间“前店后厂”的传统合作模式,随着广东省经济改革的快速推进,已经越来越不适应新的形势,粤港之间的合作路径和重心正在转移。
The policy tasks undertaken by the 21 Free Trade Zones in China's Mainland can be divided into common tasks of“becoming a highland of opening up”and specific tasks related to their respective geographical locations.In view of the spe⁃cial policy task of Guangdong Free Trade Zone,based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2005 to 2020,this paper eval⁃uates the effect of the specific policy of“To deepen economic cooperation between Guangdong and Hong Kong region ”using the syn⁃thetic control method.The empirical analysis shows that,the establishment of the Free Trade Zone has led to the continuous reduction of the share of Guangdong’s exports to Hong Kong region ,which means a rapid decline in the dependence of Guangdong’s commodity export on Hong Kong region ,and the trade cooperation between Guangdong and Hong Kong region has not been deepened.This paper makes two main innovations as follows:First,within the“counterfactual framework”,the Synthetic Control Method combines multiple individuals that are not affected by the intervention into a“synthetic control group”in a weighted manner.Therefore,it is generally difficult to find a control group for individuals with leading outcome variables.The research object of this paper is Guangdong Province,which is the largest export province in China.If common indicators such as ex⁃port volume or share of exports to Hong Kong region are directly used as the outcome variables in the synthetic control method,it is impossible to find a good“counterfactual group”.This is probably the reason why the policy evaluation literatures rarely in⁃volves the import and export of Guangdong Free Trade Zone.This paper uses“growth rate of export share to Hong Kong region ”as the result variable to solve this problem successfully.In addition,compared with the existing literature,the sample time con⁃sidered in this paper is longer(16 years),especially including the six years since the establishment of Guangdong Free Trade Zone,so the time lag of policy can be fully considered.Second,this paper gets an unexpected empirical result,that is,the establishment of Guangdong Free Trade Zone has caused a significant decline in the dependence of Guangdong’s exports on Hong Kong region ,weakening the trade cooperation be⁃tween Guangdong and Hong Kong region .Based on the analysis framework of direct trade costs provided by the World Trade Organi⁃zation and the trade characteristics between Guangdong and Hong Kong region ,this paper proposes an economic explanation of“catching up and substitution”for this empirical result:that is,with the continuous construction of Guangdong Free Trade Zone and the continuous replication of various institutional innovations to other regions in the province,Guangdong’s trade facilitation and international shipping efficiency are closer and closer to Hong Kong region ,so the trade cost of“direct export”has decreased.At last,more and more of Guangdong’s commodities have been“directly exported”,and Guangdong’s export de⁃pendence on Hong Kong region has decreased.The“weakening”of trade links between Guangdong and Hong Kong region shows that with the rapid progress of economic re⁃form in Guangdong Province,the traditional cooperation mode of“front store and back factory”has become increasingly un⁃suitable for the new situation,and the path and focus of cooperation are shifting.
作者
蔡一鸣
叶世雄
张乐洋
Cai Yiming;Ye Shixiong;Zhang Yueyang
出处
《南方经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第7期96-111,共16页
South China Journal of Economics
关键词
广东自贸区
粤港贸易
政策评估
合成控制法
Guangdong Free Trade Zone
Guangdong-Hong Kong Trade
Policy Evaluation
Synthetic Control Method
作者简介
通讯作者:蔡一鸣,华南师范大学经济与管理学院,E-mail:fenasl@163.com,通讯地址:广州天河华南师范大学教师新村C座,邮编:510631。
