摘要
本文分别针对贸易、投资、金融三项服务计算了中国香港作为中国内地中间商的经济贡献。2018年中国香港作为中国内地中间商的经济贡献估值是1261亿~1630亿美元。中国香港对中国内地经济的贡献与中国内地GDP的比值从1998年的2.3%~2.5%下降到2018年的0.9%~1.2%。同期中国香港服务中国内地企业获得的利润占中国香港GDP的比重从14%~15.4%增长到34.8%~44.9%。本文假设了中国香港服务能力下降的不同场景并进行测算。测算结果表明,当中国香港每年的服务能力下降20%,5年后中国香港赚取的中间商利润将是1089亿~1463亿美元。当年度服务能力下降40%,5年后中国香港的中间商佣金将降至735亿~951亿美元。
This article calculates the economic contribution of Hong Kong as a middleman of theMainland through services of trade,investment and finance.In 2018,Hong Kong’s economiccontribution to the Mainland as a middleman was estimated at$126.1~163 billion.The ratio ofHong Kong’s contribution to the GDP of the Mainland fell from 2.3~2.5%in 1998 to 0.9~1.2%in 2018.The share of Hong Kong’s profits,earned from providing serves for Mainlandenterprises,has increased from 14~15.4%to 34.8~44.9%of its GDP.We have assumeddifferent scenarios of decline in Hong Kong’s service capacity.According to our calculation,ifHong Kong’s annual service capacity declines by 20%,after five years,the profit Hong Kongearns as a middleman would be$108.9~146.3 billion.If its annual service capacity drops by40%,after five years,the intermediary commission of Hong Kong would be$73.5~95.1 billion.
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期161-176,8,共17页
International Economic Review
作者简介
潘圆圆供职于中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,系澳门城市大学经济研究所特约研究员,Email:panyy@cass.org.cn。
