供需协同视域下中国经济双循环动态演进及空间相关性研究被引量：6

A Study on the Dynamic Evolution andSpatial Correlation of Dual Circulation of China’sEconomy from the Perspective of Supply and Demand Synergia

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摘要以马克思主义政治经济学理论为指导,基于供给侧、需求侧和供需联动三个维度,从生产、分配、流通、消费四个环节构建中国经济双循环测算框架。采用熵权法—TOPSIS组合权重模型对2011—2020年中国经济双循环发展水平进行测度,并基于Kernel密度估计法、自然间断点分级法和Moran’s I对其动态演进与空间相关性进行系统分析。结果表明:(1)中国经济双循环整体发展水平不高,但在研究期内呈现明显增长态势。双循环发展水平区域差异显著,整体呈现由东向西渐次降低的格局,但落后地区呈现追赶态势。(2)中国经济双循环实现了从低、中低水平向中高、高水平范围区间的发展演变,各区域各省份双循环发展水平的绝对差异正在逐步缩小,并未出现极化现象。(3)中国经济双循环发展水平存在鲜明的空间集聚现象,东部省份主要落在第一象限高值集聚区,中部、东北与西部省份则主要落在第三象限低值集聚区,个别省份发生时空跃迁。 Based on the theory of Marx’s political economy and the three dimensions of supply side,demand side,and linkage between supply and demand,the study constructs the dual circulation measurement framework of China’s economy from the aspects of production,distribution,circulation and consumption,and adopts the entropy weight TOPSIS method to measure the development level of China’s economic dual circulation from 2011 to 2020.Furthermore,this study applies Kernel density estimation and Moran’s I to systematically analyze its dynamic evolution and spatial correlation.The results show that:(1)The overall development level of China’s economic dual circulation is not high,but with an obvious growth trend,and the regional differences are significant.The overall pattern is gradually decreasing from east to west,but regions of backward regions show a catch-up trend.(2)China’s economic dual circulation has evolved from low-medium level to medium-high level,and the regional differences are gradually decreasing without polarization.(3)There is a distinct spatial agglomeration phenomenon in the development level of the dual circulation,the east mainly falls in the high-value cluster area of the 1st quadrant,while middle,northeast,and west fall in the low-value cluster area of the 3rd quadrant,and several provinces have both temporal and spatial transitions.

作者吴玉彬王永瑜 Wu Yubin;Wang Yongyu

机构地区兰州财经大学会计学院兰州财经大学统计学院

出处《兰州学刊》 CSSCI 2023年第7期34-50,共17页

基金国家社科基金项目“中国自然资源产品供给与使用表编制方法及应用研究”(项目编号:22BTJ002) 国家社科基金项目“企业参与乡村振兴的行动逻辑与调适政策研究”(项目编号:20BGL130) 甘肃省高等学校创新基金项目“甘肃省融入新发展格局的绩效测度与驱动因素研究”(项目编号:2023A-074) 甘肃省基础研究计划—软科学专项“数字经济赋能甘肃省融入新发展格局的机制、效应与对策研究”(项目编号:22JR11RA101)。

关键词中国经济双循环测度框架指标体系动态演进空间相关性 china’s economic dual circulation measurement framework indicator system dynamic evolution spatial correlation

分类号 F015 [经济管理—政治经济学]

作者简介吴玉彬,兰州财经大学会计学院讲师,兰州财经大学统计学院博士生;通讯作者:王永瑜,兰州财经大学统计学院教授、博士生导师。