摘要
供应链网络中断会导致企业运营能力受损,中断风险传播引发的连锁反应会进一步危害供应链网络的整体绩效。本文从供应链运营能力视角,刻画供应链网络中断风险传播过程。将企业运营能力结合中断程度细分为五个状态,并利用离散时间马尔可夫链和动态贝叶斯网络模拟个体企业运营能力变化情形。根据企业五种运营状态将其划分为易感、潜伏、轻症、重症以及免疫个体,构建企业在潜伏期、轻症和重症感染期均具传染性的中断风险传播动力学模型。进一步探讨系统稳定状态时关联企业密度及中断风险传染临界值及其影响因素。对企业状态的细分,有助于更精准地把握运营能力,更细腻地描述中断风险在供应链网络中的传播规律。所得中断风险传播规律不仅有助于企业更清晰地认识自身及所处供应链环境的运营状态,而且能为企业据其状态变化实时更换中断风险管控策略提供依据。本文结合中断程度对企业状态进行细化描述的做法,可为研究企业状态连续时的中断风险传播规律研究提供思路。
With the increasingly close connection of affiliated enterprises in the modern supply chain network,the interruption of individual enterprises leads to damage to their own operational ability and causes chain reactions in the supply chain network where they are located,which affect the operational states of their affiliated enterprises and even harm the whole supply chain system.At present,research on supply chain network interruption risk mainly focuses on the static level,such as concept definition,type identification and quantitative analysis.The existing research on enterprise status from the perspective of operational capability has an extensive description of the details,which cannot truly reflect the propagation law of supply chain network interruption risk.On this basis,this paper discusses subdividing enterprise operational capability into five states combined with an analysis of degrees of interruption.This paper also uses a discrete-time Markov chain and dynamic Bayesian network to simulate the changes in individual enterprises′operational capabilities and the changes in their operational capabilities following their fragility and recoverability after an interruption event.This paper asserts that the interruption risk of enterprises conforms to the characteristics of the infectious disease model.There are interruption risk-susceptible individuals,latent individuals,infected individuals and immune individuals who have been removed free of risks and therefore have a certain interruption risk immunity in the supply chain network.Considering the degrees to which enterprises divide interruptions,this study divides“infected individuals”into“lightly infected individuals”and“severely infected individuals”.Thus,the four individuals in the infectious disease model,SHIR,are extended to five individuals,which creatively correspond to the five operational states of enterprises,and a new supply chain network interruption propagation model is constructed.The first part of this paper summarizes the research of related scholars,clarifying the research basis and innovation of this paper.In terms of theoretical application,this paper considers the discrete-time Markov chain and infectious disease model;in terms of the main subjects,individual enterprises and affiliated enterprises are taken into consideration.At the variable control level,enterprises′operational capabilities have been taken as a variable,and regarding the research method,it combines analysis and numerical simulation for analysis.The second part of this paper discusses constructing a model of individual enterprises′operational state change based on the Markov process and a dynamic model of supply chain network disruption risk propagation based on the infectious disease model.First,the impact of enterprises′vulnerability and resilience on individual enterprises′operational capabilities under interruption events are simulated,and then a dynamic model of interruption risk propagation combined with an infectious disease model to simulate the impact of chain reaction on enterprises′operational capabilities in a supply chain network is constructed.The third part of this paper discusses the interruption propagation process and its related properties.For individual enterprises,vulnerability and recoverability have a certain impact on their operational abilities,but ultimately,the system reaches a stable state.For affiliated enterprises,determining if there is an interruption risk propagation in their supply chain network is closely related to the interruption risk transmission threshold.In the end,the system tends to be globally stable,while the density of individual enterprises is affected by parameters.The fourth part of the paper carries out a numerical simulation analysis.First,simulation software is used to simulate the changes in individual enterprises′operational capability status over time under the influence of vulnerability and resilience.The experimental results show that enterprises′operational capabilities are affected by the interaction of vulnerability and resilience,and the whole system tends to be stable over time.Second,a simulation analysis of the interruption risk equilibrium point is carried out from both risk-free and risky aspects.The experimental results show that under different interruption risk thresholds,a risk-free stable state and a risky stable state are formed,and they are globally asymptotically stable.Finally,the influence of some important parameters on enterprises′individual density in a stable state are discussed.The results show that,(1)in the stable state,an enterprise′s density is related to the incubation period,mild and severe infection period,infection rate and mutual conversion rate.(2)The incubation period and mild and severe infection periods have positive effects on the threshold,and the three parameters promote each other.The fifth part analyses the sensitivity of the interruption risk infection threshold.The results show that the infection rates of latent individuals and mildly and severely infected individuals have a positive impact on the threshold,and the three parameters are independent of each other.The subdivision of enterprise status helps to grasp the operational capability more accurately and has a certain practical significance for enterprises to comprehensively identify the interruption risk,grasp their own operational status and formulate prevention and control strategies according to the state transfer law to improve the anti-interruption risk capability of the whole supply chain network.According to enterprises′operational capabilities,the infected individuals are divided into mildly infected individuals and severely infected individuals,which can describe the transmission law of interruption risk in the supply chain network more accurately.The obtained interruption risk propagation law can not only help enterprises better understand their own operational states and their supply chain environment but also provide a basis for them to replace interruption risk management and control strategies in real-time according to their state changes.The detailed description of the enterprise state combined with the interruption degree can provide ideas for studying the law of interruption risk propagation when the enterprise state is continuous.
作者
白世贞
吴文娅
鄢章华
苏忻洁
郑雪珍
BAI Shizhen;WU Wenya;YAN Zhanghua;SU Xinjie;ZHENG Xuezhen(School of Management,Harbin University of Commerce,Harbin 150028,China)
出处
《管理工程学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期206-221,共16页
Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71671054)
教育部人文社科基金资助项目(19YJC630197)
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划资助项目(20GLB114)。
关键词
中断风险传播
供应链网络
连锁反应
马尔可夫模型
传染病模型
Propagation of disruption risk
Supply chain network
Ripple effect
Markov modelling
Epidemic model
作者简介
白世贞(1962—),男,山东招远人,哈尔滨商业大学管理学院教授、博士生导师,研究方向:物流与供应链管理。
