摘要
交通基础设施互联互通(下文简称“连通性”)既包括基础设施的物理(硬)连通,也包括交通组织的运营(软)连通等,主要服务于人员流动与货物贸易。“一带一路”倡议的实施改善了中国与沿线国家间的连通性,影响了国家间的双边贸易。以2008―2018年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家双边货物贸易为研究对象,构建面板回归模型,分别从交通设施连通与否及其连通性水平2个层面定量评价和测算了不同类型交通连通性对中国与沿线国家货物贸易的“门槛效应”和“集聚效应”。研究发现:①连通性提升对货物贸易具有显著正向促进作用;②不同交通方式对双边货物贸易的影响存在较大差异,其中,海运的影响最大,其次是公路和航空运输,而中欧班列的运行影响不显著;③不同交通方式对双边货物贸易的行业影响也存在显著差异。研究结果可为连通性提升在双边货物贸易中的外溢提供合理的分析和解释,也可为中国如何提升与“一带一路”沿线国家双边货物贸易提供启示。
Transport infrastructure interconnection(hereinafter referred to as"connectivity")includes both physical(hard)connectivity of infrastructure and operational(soft)connectivity of transport organizations,mainly serving the movement of people and trade in goods.The implementation of"the Belt and Road Initiative"(BRI)has improved connectivity between China and BRI countries,affecting bilateral trade between the countries.Taking the bilateral trade of goods between China and the BRI countries during 2008 to 2018 as the research objects,this paper constructs a panel regression model,respectively from whether the traffic facilities are connected and its connectivity level both quantitative evaluation and measure the level of different types of traffic infrastructure interconnectivity of goods trade along the"threshold effect"and"agglomeration effect".Results indicate that:1)The improvement of connectivity has a positive effect on goods trade;2)Different modes of transportation have a great difference in the impact of bilateral goods trade,among which,Marine transport have the greatest impact,followed by road and aviation transport,and the operation impact of the China-Europe express train was still not prominent;3)There are also significant differences in the sectoral impact of different modes of transport on bilateral goods trade.The results could provide a reasonable analysis and explanation for the spillover of improved transport connectivity in bilateral goods trade,and also provide enlightenment for how China could enhance bilateral goods trade with BRI countries.
作者
焦敬娟
马王钰青
李红昌
卜伟
王姣娥
Jiao Jingjuan;Ma Wangyuqing;Li Hongchang;Bu Wei;Wang Jiaoe(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《地理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期629-637,共9页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费项目(B22JBZX00010)
国家自然科学基金项目(42271184,42071147)资助。
关键词
一带一路
互联互通
货物贸易
门槛效应
集聚效应
the Belt and Road Initiative
connectivity
goods trade
threshold effect
agglomeration effect
作者简介
焦敬娟(1988-),女,河南安阳人,副教授,硕导,主要从事交通地理与区域发展等研究。E-mail:jjjiao@bjtu.edu.cn;通讯作者:王姣娥。E-mail:wangje@igsnrr.ac.cn。
