摘要
以2014年实施的禁养区政策为准自然实验,基于2006—2020年我国除港、澳、台、藏外30个省份的面板数据,采用渐进双重差分模型评估禁养区政策对生猪市场稳定的影响,建立有调节的中介效应模型探讨该政策影响生猪价格波动的路径。结果显示:禁养区的设立显著加剧了生猪价格波动。环保约束趋紧对生猪市场稳定造成一定负面影响。禁养区政策通过有调节的中介路径对生猪价格波动产生影响。具体地,环保压力下设立禁养区倒逼生猪养殖规模化水平提高,这能在一定程度上抵消禁养区对生猪价格波动造成的直接加剧效应;但受生猪疫情的影响,规模化养殖的价格波动平缓效应被削弱,甚至规模化养殖对生猪价格波动的作用方向发生扭转,从而导致禁养区设立通过其自身的直接效应与规模化养殖的条件间接效应加剧生猪价格波动。不同规模养殖对生猪价格波动的作用受生猪疫情的影响不同,小规模和大规模养殖在疫病的干预下会加剧生猪价格波动,中规模无显著影响。非洲猪瘟背景下环保措施的回调,促进了疫情期的生猪生产供给并平缓了价格波动。为保障生猪市场健康发展,建议政府实施有弹性的环保措施,加强环保监督,加大对中小养殖户的扶持力度,完善疫病防控机制。
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities)in China(excluding of Hongkong region,Macao region,Taiwan region and Xizang)from 2006 to 2020,the livestock and poultry restricted zone policy(RZP)was selected as a quasi-natural experiment,and a generalized difference-in-difference model and a moderated mediation model were adopted to evaluate the impact of this policy on the stability of hog market and to reveal its path.It was found that RZP significantly exacerbated hog price fluctuation,and the tightening of environmental protection restrictions had a negative impact on the stability of hog market.The policy worked through the moderated mediation effects path.Specifically,under the pressure of environmental protection,RZP forced the improvement of the scale breeding level,which could offset the direct aggravation effect of RZP on hog price fluctuation.However,in those regions with more severe swine epidemics,the stabilization effect of scale breeding on price fluctuation was weakened,and the direction of the effect was even reversed.As a result,RZP intensified the hog price fluctuation through its own direct effect and the conditional indirect effect of scale breeding.Further empirical test showed that the stabilization effect of hog price fluctuation of scale farming with different scales had different responses to pig epidemic.Small-scale farming and large-scale farming would aggravate hog price fluctuation due to the swine epidemics,while medium-scale farming was not significantly affected.The callback of environmental protection measures in response to the outbreak of African swine fever had boosted hog supply and had flattened price fluctuations during the epidemic period.In order to ensure the healthy development of hog market,the government should implement flexible environmental protection measures,strengthen environmental supervision,increase efforts to support small and medium-scale farming,and improve the epidemic prevention and control mechanism.
作者
刘苇
陶建平
LIU Wei;TAO Jianping(Hubei Rural Development Research Center,College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)
出处
《浙江农业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期1195-1210,共16页
Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis
基金
国家自然科学基金(71773033)。
关键词
市场稳定
禁养区政策
规模化养殖
生猪疫情
调节中介效应
market stability
livestock and poultry restricted zone policy
scale breeding
pig epidemics
moderated mediation effect model
作者简介
刘苇(1994—),女,重庆云阳人,博士研究生,研究方向为农业风险管理与农业政策。E-mail:liuwei_hzau@163.com;通信作者:陶建平,E-mail:jptao@mail.hzau.edu.cn。
