摘要
本文基于VAR模型和市场集中度分析以及岭回归模型研究猪肉进口对国内生猪产业的影响,并评估了国内生猪产业面临的市场竞争压力。研究结果表明:第一,我国猪肉进口量呈现持续下降趋势,但供需缺口仍然存在;第二,根据VAR模型的格兰杰因果检验表明,进口猪肉价格(IPP)是国内产业链价格波动的显著影响因素;第三,构建CRn和HHI指数分析了2017—2024年猪肉出口市场集中度的变化,结果显示中国猪肉进口市场集中度较高;第四,通过岭回归模型分析发现猪肉产量、消费量及人民币汇率是影响猪肉进口规模的关键因素。基于此,本文提出加强与主要供应国合作、健全农民收入保障机制、强化疫病防控体系、推进国内生猪养殖业发展及完善猪肉进出口调控政策建议,以提升国内生猪产业应对进口竞争的能力。
This study examined the impact of pork imports on China's domestic swine industry using a VAR model,market concentration analysis,and ridge regression model,while assessing the competitive pressures faced by the domestic swine market.The findings revealed that.Firstly,China's pork import volume showed a continuous downward trend,yet a supply-demand gap persists.Secondly,the Granger causality test from the VAR model indicated that imported pork price(IPP)was a significant factor influencing price fluctuations in the domestic industrial chain.Thirdly,the analysis of pork export market concentration changed from 2017 to 2024,based on the CRn and HHI indices,demonstrated a high concentration in China's pork import market.Fourthly,the ridge regression model identified pork production,consumption,and RMB exchange rates as key determinants of pork import scale.Based on these findings,this study proposed policy recommendations,including strengthening cooperation with major supplying countries,improving income protection mechanisms for farmers,enhancing disease prevention and control systems,promoting the development of domestic swine farming,and refining pork import-export regulatory policies,to enhance the domestic swine industry's resilience against import competition.
作者
王子祎
王琛
王满君
蒋晓宁
WANG Ziyi;WANG Chen;WANG Manjun;JIANG Xiaoning(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Agriculture/Beijing Rural Revitalization Research Base,Beijing 102206;New York University,NY 10003,USA)
出处
《中国猪业》
2025年第4期96-107,共12页
China Swine Industry
基金
2020年国家社科基金一般项目(20BGL170)
北京市属高校教师队伍建设支持计划优秀青年人才项目(BPHR202203101)
北京市乡村振兴农业科技项目(NY2502270225)。
关键词
猪肉进口
市场集中度
VAR模型
岭回归分析
预测
pork imports
market concentration
VAR model
ridge regression analysis
forecast
作者简介
王子祎(2001-),女,河南焦作人,硕士研究生,主要从事农产品国际贸易研究,E-mail:18317292077@163.com;通信作者:王琛(1985-),女,山西太原人,博士,教授,研究方向为农产品市场与贸易,E-mail:kemoduolong@hotmail.com。
