摘要
为探析国家气象信息中心多源融合格点降水实况产品在中小河流面雨量计算中的可行性,该文以湖南省资水流域柘桃区间为例,利用泰森多边形法、算术平均值法、克里金插值法以及国家气象信息中心多源融合格点降水实况产品,以2020年9月的主要降水过程为代表,对4种方法计算的面雨量结果进行比较分析。结果表明:(1)4种方法的计算结果相关性显著,均能较好反应出不同强度降水及不同子流域之间的差异。大多数情况下算术平均值法的结果偏大,多源融合格点实况法的结果偏小,插值法和泰森多边形法的结果介于二者之间。(2)当地面雨量站分布密集或降水空间分布均匀时,4种方法计算结果的标准差较小;当地面雨量站分布稀疏或降水空间分布不均时,4种方法的结果标准差较大,此时采用多源融合格点实况法比算术平均值法、泰森多边形法更合理可靠。(3)对于地形地貌复杂多变的山区,尤其是暴雨以上强降水天气,降水空间分布十分不均,实际计算中小河流域面雨量时,针对不同的子流域、不同的天气过程,应当根据天气系统及降水空间分布综合分析,合理利用多种方法才能准确把握面雨量的大小和可能的误差。
Taking the Zhetao section of the Zishui River Basin in Hunan Province as an example,the application of the multi-source observed precipitation products developed by National Meteorological Information Center in the area rainfall calculation of small and medium rivers is discussed.The main torecipitation torocess in September,2020 were calculated based on 4 different algorithms namely Tyson polygon,arithmetic mean,Kriging interpolation,merging of multi-source observed precipitation products.The results show that:(1)The calculation results of the four methods have significant correlations,all can reflect the differences between intensities of precipitation and sub-basins.In most cases,the result of the average method is larger,the result of the merging of multi-source observed precipitation products is smaller,and the results of the Kriging interpolation and Tyson polygon are somewhere in between.(2)For precipitation above moderate rainfall,when the local area rainfall stations are densely distributed or the distribution of precipitation is uniform,the standard deviation of the results is smalller;when the local area rainfall stations are sparsely distributed or the precipitation is unevenly distributed,the standard deviation is larger.At this time,the merging of multi-source observed precipitation products is more reliable than others.(3)For mountainous areas with complex and changeable topography,especially those with heavy rainfall or above,the spatial distribution of precipitation is very uneven.In the actual calculation of areal rainfall,for different sub-basins and weather processes,a comprehensive analysis should be made based on the weather system and the spatial distribution of precipitation.A variety of methods should be reasonably used to accurately grasp the magnitude and possible errors of the areal rainfall.
作者
余青松
罗婉
杨令
曾婷婷
邹锦明
YU Qingsong;LUO Wan;YANG Ling;ZENG Tingting;ZOU Jinming(Yiyang Meteorological Bureau of Hunan Province,Yiyang 413000,China)
出处
《中低纬山地气象》
2023年第2期69-74,共6页
Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology
基金
湖南省气象局预报预测专项(XQKJ22C006)
湖南省气象局重点课题(XQKJ20A006)。
关键词
资水流域
中小河流域
面雨量算法
Zishui River Basin
small and medium river
algorithms of areal rainfall
作者简介
第一作者:余青松(1973-),男,工程师,主要从事应用气象服务工作,E-mail:815160690@qq.com。
