摘要
本文构建了一个包含数字支付因素和货币创造过程的多部门动态宏观模型,研究了数字人民币发行与数字支付进一步发展对中国宏观经济增长及波动的影响。本文认为,数字人民币发行与数字支付进一步发展有助于提升支付效率、降低现金使用成本和现金需求,加速“无现金时代”的到来,并会在一定程度上降低金融摩擦,改善金融监管。这既影响居民的资产配置,增加居民储蓄,进而压低长期利率,也会影响企业的投融资行为,从而提升整体的资源配置效率,增加经济稳态下的总产出和居民福利。同时,货币乘数会有较大幅度提升。当宏观经济面临外生冲击时,数字人民币的发行协同数字支付的进一步发展会提升货币政策的传导效率和逆周期调节作用,若中央银行选择实施最优货币政策,则可以进一步降低经济波动带来的福利损失。本文研究为数字人民币发行与数字支付进一步发展提供了重要的政策启示。
In recent years,the coming of the cashless era has become a hot issue concerned by the whole society.The emergence of a central bank digital currency(CBDC)and the continuous development of digital payment have accelerated this process.However,the literature on the macroeconomic impacts of the CBDC and digital payment has some deficiencies.Existing literature does not accord with the actual situation of e-CNY in terms of the discussion of the influence mechanism,the selection of research methods,and the characterization of e-CNY.The main contribution and innovation of this paper lie in the following aspects.Based on the relevant typical facts of China's macro economy,this paper constructs a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model containing digital payment and the process of money creation,and studies the effects of e-CNY issuance and the further development of digital payment on the long-term steady state and short-term economic fluctuations of China's macro economy,which fill the gaps in literature.At the same time,this paper also analyzes the relevant transmission mechanism,and discusses the optimal monetary policy in the case that cash is completely replaced by digital payment tools.This paper finds out that along with the issuance of e-CNY and the further development of digital payment,GDP and the household welfare level in a long-term steady state will rise.Numerical simulation results show that,under the setting of the benchmark model,when traditional cash is completely replaced by digital payment tools(including e-CNY and third-party payment tools),China's GDP and household welfare level in a long-term steady state will increase by 0.23%and 0.10%,respectively.This is because the issuance of e-CNY and the development of digital payment have improved payment efficiency and security and reduced the cash use cost,thus reducing residents'cash demand and increasing savings,raising the money multiplier,and lowering the long-term interest rate.At the same time,as the e-CNY system and new digital payment technologies will be promoted in enterprises and commercial banks in the future,financial frictions and minimum capital requirements of commercial banks will be reduced to some extent through the channels of reducing incomplete information and improving the credit system and financial supervision.This will make the issuance of e-CNY and the development of digital payment more conducive to investment and long-term economic growth.This paper also finds that when the macro economy is faced with exogenous shocks,the issuance of e-CNY and the further development of digital payment will improve the transmission efficiency of monetary policy and its counter-cyclical adjustment effect,so that the macro economy can adjust more flexibly in face of shocks and the volatility of macroeconomic variables will be reduced.This paper puts forward a series of policy suggestions on the issuance of e-CNY and the further development of digital payment.
作者
刘凯
郭明旭
李育
LIU Kai;GUO Ming-xu;LI Yu(School of Economics,Renmin University of China;Institution of China's Economic Reform&Development,Renmin University of China;School of International Studies,Renmin University of China;Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation,Ministry of Commerce,PRC)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第3期39-57,共19页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目“区块链与数字货币中的博弈论”(批准号72192801)
国家社会科学基金重大项目“货币政策分配效应与缩小收入和财富差距的有效路径研究”(批准号20&ZD105)
中国人民大学2022年度“中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金”的资助。
作者简介
刘凯,中国人民大学经济学院、中国经济改革与发展研究院教授,博士生导师,经济学博士;通讯作者:郭明旭,中国人民大学国际关系学院博士研究生,电子邮箱:guomingxu@ruc.edu.cn;李育,商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院副研究员,经济学博士。
