摘要
实行总量型货币调控的基本前提是货币需求稳定或可测,结合中国经济对外开放度越来越高的背景,本文侧重在开放条件下,首次利用对数据稳定性没有要求的BoundsTesting方法,系统地考察了我国货币需求在1987—2008年二十年间的特征。结果发现在考虑汇率(预期)和外部因素的条件下我国在长期里才有稳定的货币需求。进一步地,1996年以前,M1更适合做货币盯住目标,而M2在1996年以后更合适,尤其M2与汇率因素之间的联系紧密。虽然我国的资本账户还未完全放开,但是货币替代和资本流动效应表现明显。人民币贬值(升值)预期将显著减少(增加)居民和企业对人民币的需求,这意味着央行在对汇率进行控制的条件下要进一步保持货币政策独立性的难度将越来越大。
A stable money demand is the basic condition of effective monetary policy. Considering that the China＇s economy is becoming more and more open, the paper intensively explored China＇ s money demand in 1987--2008 considering money substitution effect, by using the Bounds Testing method which is suitable for any kind of time series data（ Ⅰ （0） or Ⅰ （1））. Our main finding is as following： Primarily, China＇s money demand is better captured by considering exchange rate and international interest rate into money model; as the targeting goal of central bank, M1 is better than M2 before 1996, while it is converse after 1996. Furthermore, the money substitution effect and capital flow effect are obvious although the capital account has still been under control in China. The depreciation （appreciation） expectation of RMB could significantly decrease （increase） households and enterprises＇ demand for RMB, which indicates that it will be more difficult for China＇ s central bank to keep independent monetary policy as well as control exchange rate at the same time.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第1期39-54,共16页
Economic Research Journal
作者简介
万晓莉，西南财经大学中国金融研究中心，邮政编码：610074，电子信箱：xlwan@163．com；
霍德明，北京大学中国经济研究中心，邮政编码：100871，电子信箱：dmhuo@ccer．edu．cn；
陈斌开，中央财经大学经济学院，电子信箱：chenbinkai@gmail．com。
