摘要
人口老龄化和劳动力流动对产业结构的升级具有重要影响。基于2005—2020年31个省、直辖市、自治区的面板数据,实证研究人口老龄化、劳动力流动与产业结构升级之间的关系。发现人口老龄化对产业结构高级化有积极影响,但阻碍了产业结构合理化的发展;劳动力流动对产业结构高级化的作用存在门限效应,即当人口老龄化程度跨越门限值后,劳动力流动与产业高级化的关系由显著负相关转变为显著正相关;在控制省份和时间效应的条件下,人口老龄化与劳动力流动都不利于产业结构的合理化发展。应加强对老龄人口的社会保障和服务,合理引导劳动力向城市流动,合理布局第一、第二、第三产业发展,以更好地促进产业结构升级。
Population aging and labor mobility have an important impact on the upgrading of industrial structure.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2005 to 2020,the study empirically studies the relationship between population aging,labor mobility and industrial structure upgrading.The results show that population aging has positive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure,but hinders the development of industrial structure rationalization.There is threshold effect on the effect of labor mobility on the upgrading of industrial structure.When the degree of aging crosses the threshold value,the relationship between labor mobility and industrial upgrading changes from significant negative correlation to significant positive one.Under the condition of controlling province and time effect,aging and labor flow are not conducive to the rational development of industrial structure.It is suggested to promote the social insurance and service of population aging;rationally guide the flow of labor to cities;rationally lay out the development of the first,second and third industry,to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.
作者
李城
Li Cheng(Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225100,China)
出处
《黑龙江科学》
2023年第5期1-5,10,共6页
Heilongjiang Science
基金
扬州大学2022年研究生科研创新计划项目(SXYYJSKC202213)。
关键词
人口老龄化
劳动力流动
产业结构升级
Population aging
Labor mobility
Industrial structure upgrading
作者简介
李城(1998-),男,扬州大学,硕士研究生。研究方向:产业结构。
