摘要
随着目前电力市场的深入改革,为了实现电网的规划合理,合理预测浙江省中长期电力需求非常必要,本文搜集了可能影响电力负荷的众多宏观经济影响因素,通过相关分析先去除一部分影响不大的因素,然后建立了一个浙江省中长期电力负荷预测的多元线性回归模型,并进行了模型的验证。验证结果表明该模型预测精度比较高,可以进行浙江省的中长期的电力负荷预测。对于科学编制浙江省电网中长期电力发展规划,促进电力工业与国民经济协调发展具有重要意义。
With the in-depth reform of the current power market, in order to realize the reasonable planning of the power grid and reasonably forecast the medium and long-term power demand in Zhejiang Province, this paper collects many macroeconomic factors that may affect the power load. Through the correlation analysis, we first remove some of the less influential factors, and then establish a multiple linear regression of the medium and long-term power load forecasting in Zhejiang Province. The model is verified.The verification results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is relatively high, and it can be used for medium and long-term power load forecasting in Zhejiang Province. It is of great significance to scientifically draw up the medium and long-term power development plan of Zhejiang Province and promote the coordinated development of power industry and national economy.
作者
魏骁
申少辉
徐俊
WEI Xiao;SHEN Shao-hui;XU Jun(Zhejiang Power Exchange Center,310020 Hangzhou China;Beijing Kedong Power Control System Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100194 China)
出处
《自动化技术与应用》
2023年第2期26-29,40,共5页
Techniques of Automation and Applications
关键词
中长期负荷预测
相关分析
多元线性回归模型
medium and long term load forecasting
correlation analysis
multiple linear regression model
作者简介
魏骁(1990-),男,硕士,工程师,研究方向:电力市场研究。
