摘要
基于弹性估计和情境模拟方法,测算2020—2028年28个主要"一带一路"沿线国家的电力合作潜力。研究发现:①"一带一路"沿线28个国家的产能合作潜力由2020年的2728.42万kW增长至2024年的9305.86万kW和2028年的14518.82万kW;②南亚的印度电力合作潜力远超其他国家且出现断层现象,具备巨大的电力产能合作潜力;③包括沙特阿拉伯、埃及、伊朗、土耳其和科威特在内的西亚、北非地区,印度尼西亚和马来西亚在内的东南亚地区和前苏联的哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯均具备很大的合作潜力;④产能合作潜力靠后的主要有中东欧地区的保加利亚、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克和匈牙利,前苏联地区的白俄罗斯、阿塞拜疆和乌克兰等国家。
Based on elastic estimation and scenario simulation methods,the power cooperation potential of 28 major countries along the Belt and Road is estimated by 2028.The research found that:①The capacity cooperation potential of 28 countries along the Belt and Road will increase from 27284200 kW in 2020 to 93058600 kW in 2024 and 145188200 kW in2028;②India’s power cooperation potential in South Asia far exceeds that of other countries and there is a fault phenomenon,which has huge potential for power production cooperation;③West Asia and North African including Saudi Arabia,Egypt,Iran,Turkey and Kuwait,Southeast Asia including Indonesia and Malaysia,Kazakhstan and Russia in the former Soviet Union all have great potential for cooperation;④Bulgaria,Romania,Slovakia and Hungary in the Central and Eastern Europe region have the lowest potential for capacity cooperation,and countries such as Belarus,Azerbaijan and Ukraine in the former Soviet Union region.
作者
严亚萍
陈侯旻慧
孙泽生
Yan Yaping;Chen Houminhui;Sun Zesheng(Business School,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200434,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2020年第8期45-55,共11页
Coal Economic Research
基金
国家社会科学基金面上项目(17BJY012)
(2018BJL003)
关键词
“一带一路”
电力
国际产能合作
收入弹性
情境模拟
the Belt One Road
power
international production capacity cooperation
income elasticity
scenario simulation
作者简介
严亚萍(1997—),女,湖北襄阳人,硕士研究生,研究方向为区域经济学。E-mail:yanyapingaaa@126.com;通讯作者:孙泽生(1975—),男,山西稷山人,教授、博士。主要研究方向为国际贸易、公共政策、资源和能源经济学。E-mail:szsszs7514@126.com
