摘要
随着国内乳业和畜牧业的快速发展,中国苜蓿草进口量增幅显著,但是进口来源仍然高度集中。在新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延、俄乌冲突持续、全球供应链断裂风险加剧的背景下,提高进口来源多元化水平对于稳定中国苜蓿草供应和促进相关产业发展无疑具有重要意义。本文利用复杂网络分析法,基于1996—2020年全球苜蓿草贸易数据,构建了全球苜蓿草贸易网络,从总体、区域和国别三个层面刻画了全球苜蓿草贸易格局的动态演变,并探讨了这种演变对中国苜蓿草进口多元化的启示。研究结果表明:全球苜蓿草贸易较为分散,呈现出明显的组团趋势,核心贸易国比较固定,主要出口国的中介中心度下降、中心性上升。增加中国苜蓿草进口贸易的多元化水平,一方面可以扩大与西班牙、加拿大、意大利、阿根廷和罗马尼亚等国家的现有贸易规模,另一方面可以开拓与法国、澳大利亚、德国、荷兰、波兰、埃及、智利、奥地利、匈牙利和新西兰等潜在合作国家的贸易市场。总体上,今后一段时期中国扩大苜蓿草进口是可行的,但在扩大进口规模的同时应高度关注和管控进口贸易风险。
With the rapid development of dairy and animal husbandry, China’s imports of alfalfa have increased significantly, but the sources of imports are still highly concentrated. Against the background of global spread of COVID-19, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the increased risk of global supply chain disruption, it is undoubtedly important to improve the import sources diversification to stabilize China’s alfalfa supply and promote the development of related industries. Using complex network analysis, this paper constructs a global alfalfa trade network based on the global alfalfa trade data from 1996 to 2020, portrays the dynamic evolution of the global alfalfa trade pattern at overall, regional and national levels.It is believed that China should continue to expend the scale of alfalfa import and pay high attention to the risk. The results show that: the global alfalfa trade is fragmented and has an obvious grouping trend, the core trading countries are relatively fixed, the intermediation degree of major exporting countries decreases and the centrality degree increases. Increasing the diversification level of China’s alfalfa import trade can, on the one hand, expand the existing trade scale with Spain, Canada, Italy, Argentina, Romania, and on the other hand, develop the trade markets with potential cooperative countries such as France, Australia, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Egypt, Chile, Austria, Hungary and New Zealand. This reveals us that it is feasible to expand alfalfa import in the coming period, and the import trade risk should be highly concerned and control at the same time.
作者
李天祥
李圣洁
蒋昕臻
LI Tianxiang;LI Shengjie;JIANG Xinzhen
出处
《世界农业》
CSSCI
2023年第1期66-76,共11页
World Agriculture
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目“我国粮食供需格局演变与开放条件下的粮食安全政策研究”(71934005)
国家社会科学基金重大项目“耕地-技术-政策融合视角的‘两藏’战略研究”(21ZDA056)。
关键词
苜蓿草进口
复杂网络
贸易多元化
Alfalfa Import
Complex Networks
Trade Diversification
作者简介
李天祥(1989-),男,湖北黄冈人,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:农业经济、农产品贸易和粮食安全,E-mail:txl0428@njau.edu.cn;李圣洁(2000-),女,浙江丽水人,硕士研究生,研究方向:产业经济,E-mail:1669818071@qq.com;通信作者:蒋昕臻(1983-),女,江苏徐州人,副研究员,研究方向:农业科技教育,E-mail:jiangxzl1226@163.com。
