摘要
为研究中国牧草产品的贸易量、贸易结构、贸易伙伴的历史趋势和变化规律,采用描述性统计以及定量计算函数关系的方法分析1996—2014年间中国牧草产品国际贸易格局。结果发现:2008年以来,中国苜蓿干草和燕麦草的进口量都呈现指数式增长趋势,进口量与中国大型奶牛场的奶牛存栏头数呈现显著正相关关系。中国牧草产品主要进口国是美国和澳大利亚。为了保障粗饲料供给安全,中国应该采取的措施是充分利用国内、国际2个市场和2种资源,有效补充对国内优质饲料的供给。燕麦草正值发展的有利时机,应该借鉴澳大利亚燕麦草产业发展经验,重视发展燕麦草产业。同时应该调动国内各种资源发展牧草产业,从而保障中国优质安全的乳制品与牛羊肉产品的供应。
To study the historical trend and changing rule of trade amount, structure and partnership of forage products, descriptive statistics and quantitative methods were used to analyze international trade pattern of forage products in China from 1996 to 2014. It turned out that China＇s imports of both alfalfa hay and oat grass showed a trend of exponential growth since 2008, and the import volume had a significant positive correlation with the number of dairy cows in large-scale farms. In addition, most alfalfa hay and almost all oat grass came from USA and Australia, respectively. So in order to ensure the safe supply of roughage, China should make good use of domestic resources firstly, and then use overseas resources with high quality as far as possible.Besides, oat grass industry was facing with great opportunities, so it could be developed based on experience from Australia to make sure that the quality of oat grass can be comparable with the international oat.Meanwhile, all kinds of resources should be used as soon as possible to strengthen domestic forage industry so as to guarantee safe quality of dairy products and the beef and mutton products.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2015年第26期1-6,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
中国农业科学院科技创新工程(ASTIP-IAED-2015-01)
现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-35-22)
关键词
牧草产品
国际贸易
启示
forage products
international trade
enlightenment
作者简介
汪武静，女，1985年出生，甘肃民勤人，硕士，主要从事畜牧业经济研究。通信地址：100081北京市海淀区中关村南大街12号中国农业科学院新主楼，E—mail：609766751@qq．com。
通讯作者：王明利，男，1968年出生，内蒙古丰镇人，研究员，博士生导师，博士，主要从事畜牧业经济、技术经济研究。通信地址；100081北京市海淀区中关村南大街12号中国农业科学院新主楼，Tel：010-82106708，E-mail：wangmingli@caas．cn。
