摘要
目前普遍采用的高压断路器事后维护与计划维护策略存在停机损失高、易过度维护等缺点。为实现设备运行可靠性、安全性与维护成本的最优化,针对基于弹簧操动机构的高压断路器,提出了一种数据驱动与退化模型相结合的预测性维护策略。首先从分/合闸线圈电流波形信号与断路器辅助触点电压波形信号中提取时间特征量,构造了计及监测数据不确定性影响的退化程度指标,引入序贯贝叶斯算法实现了融合历史记录与监测数据的断路器状态评估结果实时更新。其次,基于状态评估建立考虑退化过程时变不确定性的高压断路器指数型退化模型,在此基础上给出了实时剩余寿命计算方法。利用剩余寿命概率密度函数与期望损失率建立了目标函数,以制定高压断路器预测性维护策略。仿真算例验证了所提出的剩余寿命预测方法相较于传统方法具有更高的计算精度,给出的维护策略可有效兼顾经济性与可靠性。该方法可为高压断路器维护决策提供数据依据,具有广泛推广前景。
The commonly used break maintenance and planned maintenance strategies for the high-voltage circuit breaker(HVCB)have disadvantages such as high downtime loss and frequent over-maintenance.To achieve the optimization of equipment operation reliability,safety and maintenance cost,this paper proposes a predictive maintenance policy for HVCBs with spring operation mechanism,which combines data-driven and degradation model.Firstly,the degradation index considering the influence of uncertainty of monitoring data is constructed by using time features contained in the tripping/closing coil current waveform and the circuit breaker auxiliary contact voltage waveform.The sequential Bayesian algorithm is introduced to realize the real-time update of the HVCB state estimation integrating the historical records and monitoring data.Moreover,an exponential degradation model of HVCBs considering the time-varying uncertainty of degradation process is constructed based on the state estimation,and the real-time remanent useful life calculation is further presented.The objective function is established through the remanent useful life probability density function and the expect cost rate to obtain the HVCB predictive maintenance policy.The simulation cases verify that the proposed remanent life prediction method has higher calculation accuracy than the conventional method,and the presented HVCB maintenance policy can effectively consider both economy and reliability.This method can provide a data basis for the maintenance decision of HVCBs and has broad prospects for promotion.
作者
卢扬
李永丽
LU Yang;LI Yongli(Key Laboratory of Smart Grid,Ministry of Education,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)
出处
《高电压技术》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第7期2716-2726,共11页
High Voltage Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划(2016YFB0900603)
国家自然科学基金(51577128)
关键词
高压断路器
状态评估
剩余寿命
预测性维护
序贯贝叶斯
high-voltage circuit breaker
state estimation
remaining useful life
predictive maintenance
sequential Bayesian
作者简介
卢扬1990-,男,博士主要研究方向为数据驱动与机器学习方法在保护与控制系统中的应用,E-mail:420207600@qq.com;通信作者:李永丽1963-,女,博士,教授,博导主要从事电力系统故障分析、高压直流输电系统保护与控制的研究工作,E-mail:lyltju@163.com。
