摘要
长江经济带作为国家重大经济发展战略,经济增速当前呈现出整体性放缓、中心城市集聚效应突显以及人口“局部收缩”的社会现象。文章采用熵值法计算了2006—2019年长江经济带108个地级及以上城市的人口指数,并以人口指数的变动识别人口收缩城市,最后使用面板计量模型探究城市人口收缩的影响因素。研究发现:2006—2019年长江经济带大部分城市处于人口指数缓慢增长阶段;按照收缩程度和收缩尺度进行划分发现,53个城市经历了暂时收缩,主要分布在长江中游地区,具有地理空间上的集聚,并展现向下游地区扩张的趋势;3个城市表现为持续收缩,以中游南部最为集中;35个城市出现了间歇性收缩;长江经济带的人口收缩城市抱团和零星发展皆有,主要集中在中上游地区且具有向周边溢出的趋势,人口收缩城市日趋泛化;进一步通过计量模型实证分析得出收缩城市主要受到地区发展水平、产业结构、公共服务和产业集聚水平的影响。
As a major national economic development strategy,the economic growth of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is currently showing a social phenomenon of overall slowdown,prominent agglomeration effect of central cities,and"par⁃tial shrinkage"of population.This paper uses entropy method to calculate the population index of 108 cities at prefecture level and above in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2006 to 2019,and uses the change of population index to iden⁃tify the cities with shrinking population.Finally,it uses panel econometric model to explore the influencing factors of ur⁃ban population shrinkage.It is found that most cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt were in the stage of slow popula⁃tion index growth from 2006 to 2019;according to the degree and scale of shrinkage,it is found that 53 cities have experi⁃enced temporary shrinkage,mainly distributed in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,with geographical spatial ag⁃glomeration,and showing a trend of expansion to the downstream areas;3 cities showed continuous shrinkage,with the most concentrated in the south of the middle reaches;35 cities have experienced intermittent shrinkage;the population shrinking cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt were clustered and developed sporadically,which were mainly con⁃centrated in the middle and upper reaches of the region and had a trend of spillover to the surrounding areas,and the population shrinking cities were becoming more and more generalized;further empirical analysis of econometric model shows that shrinking cities were mainly affected by the level of regional development,industrial structure,public services,and industrial agglomeration.
作者
郑洁
汪甜甜
陈浩
ZHENG Jie;WANG Tiantian;CHEN Hao(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第8期13-25,共13页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“城市群战略下中心城市人口集聚的时空演变与空间效应研究”(20BRK019)
中南财经政法大学学科统筹建设项目“就业创业与乡村振兴机制体制研究”(XKHJ202117)。
关键词
人口收缩城市
识别
影响因素
长江经济带
population shrinking cities
identification
influencing factors
the Yangtze River Economic Belt
作者简介
郑洁(1994-),女,新疆哈密人,博士研究生,研究方向:人口经济,计量经济;汪甜甜(1997-),女,安徽宿州人,硕士研究生,研究方向:区域经济;陈浩(1964-),男,湖北黄石人,教授,博士生导师,博士,研究方向:人口与资源经济。
