摘要
后疫情时期中国面临经济复苏、空气质量达标、“双碳”目标实现等多重压力,在此背景下,研究减污降碳协同效应并厘清实现路径对中国在后疫情时期稳定经济增长的同时推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型具有重要的现实意义。该研究基于 2001—2019年中国 30个省份的省级面板数据,利用面板回归模型和中介效应模型分析了减污降碳政策的协同效应、动态演变过程以及实现路径。结果显示:(1)中国的减污和降碳政策具有显著的协同效应。其中,降碳政策对减污和降碳几乎具有相同的效力,而减污政策则主要以减污为主、降碳为辅,但其对空气污染物(即SO_(2)和烟尘粉尘)和CO_(2)排放的抑制作用大于降碳政策。此外,该研究分别从内生性问题、减污降碳政策指标设计稳健性、估计方法稳健性三个视角证实了基准估计结果的稳健性。(2)减污和降碳政策的协同效应具有明显的动态变化趋势;降碳政策自政策实施起便具有显著的减污协同效应,且政策实施时间越长,对减污的协同作用越强;而减污政策的降碳协同效应则是自 2011年出台节能减排综合性方案以后才逐渐显著,随后呈现先上升后下降的态势。因此,长期而言以碳排放交易市场为主的降碳政策的减污协同效应显著优于减污政策的降碳协同效应,故在进行减污降碳协同增效的战略布局中应以构建碳市场为主。(3)减污政策的有效性和协同性均主要通过优化能源消费结构、降低碳排放强度、促进技术进步来实现,而降碳政策的有效性和协同性则主要通过前两条路径来实现。根据研究结论,提出了促进减污降碳协同增效的政策建议。
China is facing multiple pressures from economic recovery,air quality standards,and the realization of ‘dual carbon’ goals in the post-pandemic period.Therefore,analyzing the synergistic effects of pollution control and carbon reduction and identifying their realization pathways are of great practical significance for China to promote its comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2019,this article analyzed the synergistic effects,dynamic evolution process,and realization pathways of pollution control and carbon reduction policies with the panel regression model and intermediary effect model.The results showed that:(1) China’s pollution control and carbon reduction policies had significant synergistic effects.Among them,the carbon reduction policy had almost the same effects on pollution control and carbon reduction,while the pollution control policy mainly focused on pollution control and carbon reduction as a supplement,but its inhibitory effect on air pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions was greater than that of the carbon reduction policy.Moreover,we confirmed the robustness of the benchmark estimation results from three perspectives:endogenous problems,robustness of pollution control policy index design,and estimation methods.(2) The synergistic effects of pollution control and carbon reduction policies demonstrated a clear dynamic change trend.Specifically,the carbon reduction policy had a significant synergistic effect on pollution control since the implementation of the policy,and the longer the implementation time of the policy,the stronger the synergistic effect on pollution control.The synergistic effects of carbon reduction and pollution control policies began to be significant after the introduction of the comprehensive plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 12th Five Year Plan(i.e.,after 2011),and showed a changing trend of first rising and then falling.Therefore,the carbon market based the synergistic effects of carbon reduction policy was in the long run significantly larger than that of the pollution control policy,and thus the strategic layout of synergy should focus on the construction of carbon market.The conclusion just verified the rationality and foresight of China’s initiation of the national carbon emission trading market.(3) The effectiveness and synergy of pollution control policies were mainly realized by optimizing energy consumption structure,reducing carbon emission intensity and promoting technological progress,while the effectiveness and synergy of carbon reduction policies were mainly realized through the first two pathways.Based on the research conclusions,this article puts forward a series of policy recommendations to promote synergies between pollution control and carbon reduction.
作者
张瑜
孙倩
薛进军
杨翠红
ZHANG Yu;SUN Qian;XUE Jinjun;YANG Cuihong(Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;University of Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China;Nagoya University-SinoCarbon Carbon Netural Innovation Joint Laboratory,Nagoya University,Nagoya 464-0086,Japan;Research Institute for Global Value Chains,School of International Economics and Trade,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China;Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center of Carbon Emission Trading,Wuhan Hubei 430205,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第5期1-13,共13页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目“计量建模与经济政策研究”(批准号:71988101)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于供给使用表和考虑企业异质性的中国投入产出模型及应用研究”(批准号:71673269)
日本学术振兴会科学研究助成金(国际合作研究强化B)“后疫情时代的全球价值链重建:基于大数据的跨学科研究”(批准号:20KK0033)
科技部“111”高校引智基地项目(批准号:B18014)。
关键词
减污降碳
协同治理
路径探究
动态分析
pollution control and carbon reduction
collaborative governance
pathway exploration
dynamic analysis
作者简介
张瑜,博士生,主要研究方向为投入产出技术、能源经济与政策评估、全球价值链。E⁃mail:zhangyu18@amss.ac.cn;通信作者:薛进军,博士,教授,博导,主要研究方向为气候变化与低碳经济学、能源与环境经济学、全球价值链。E-mail:xuejj1010@gmail.com。
