摘要
经济高质量发展背景下,碳排放与经济增长脱钩状态发生变化。文章从脱钩、因素分解和预测的角度,测度了30个省份碳排放与经济增长的脱钩指数,分析了各省份脱钩效应及驱动因素,计算并预测了2017-2020年和2020-2023年的脱钩指数。研究结果发现:中国各省份2011-2014年和2014-2017年比2005-2008年和2008-2011年的脱钩状态更优,2014-2017年以弱脱钩和强脱钩为主。脱钩指数分解的结果表明,人均研发支出效应是脱钩的主要障碍,研发效率效应和能源强度效应是脱钩的主要推动力,人口效应和能源结构效应对脱钩过程的影响相对较弱,对脱钩不具有决定性作用。预测结果显示,2020-2023年脱钩状态进一步优化。根据实证分析结果,从加大研发投入、提高研发效率等方面提出了相关政策建议。
In the context of high-quality economic development, the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth is also changing. From the perspective of decoupling, factor decomposition and forecasting, the decoupling index of carbon emissions and economic growth in 30 provinces was measured. The influencing factors of decoupling of various provinces were also analyzed. The decoupling index for 2017-2020 and 2020-2023 was predicted and calculated. The results found that the provinces of China in 2011-2014 and 2014-2017 had better decoupling status than 2005-2008 and 2008-2011. In 2014-2017, weak decoupling and strong decoupling were dominant. The decomposition result of the decoupling index shows that the per capita R&D expenditure effect is the main obstacle to decoupling. R&D efficiency effects and energy intensity effects are the main driving forces for decoupling. The population effect and energy structure effect have relatively weak influence on the decoupling process, and have no decisive effect on decoupling. The forecast results show that the decoupling status will be further optimized in 2020-2023. Based on the results of the empirical analysis, relevant policy recommendations were proposed in terms of increasing R&D investment and improving R&D efficiency.
作者
吕靖烨
李珏
LYU Jingye;LI Jue(School of Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China)
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期210-220,共11页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
国家社会科学基金项目:我国“一带一路”能源投资政策绿色效果评价与改进策略研究(20BJY076)
西安科技大学博士后启动基金:基于风险评价的陕西企业碳金融市场参与策略研究(8250119003)
陕西省哲学社会科学重大理论与现实问题研究项目:陕西省碳排放-经济增长-生态环境协同发展测度与对策研究(2021ND0235)。
关键词
碳排放
经济增长
脱钩
驱动因素
预测
carbon emissions
economic growth
decoupling
driving factors
forecasting
作者简介
吕靖烨(1975-),男,副教授,博士,研究方向为能源经济与管理,(电子信箱)lyujy@xust.edu.cn;通讯作者:李珏,(电子信箱)746194346@qq.com。
