摘要
基于系统动力学方法和联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)排放因子法,对上海市2000—2019年的化石能源CO_(2)排放进行定量核算,构建上海市化石能源CO_(2)排放系统动力学模型,并模拟基础排放、低排放、高排放3种情景下的未来CO_(2)排放变化。研究发现:(1)根据2000—2019年统计数据,上海市化石能源的CO_(2)排放从2003年开始攀升,到2010年开始趋于平稳增长,其中增长最快的阶段为2004—2007年,增长了32.7%;(2)上海市生产总值(GDP)年增长,2050年低排放情景较基础情景下降25%,高排放情景较基础情景上升33%;(3)2020—2050年低排放情景的能源消费量呈下降趋势,基础情景与高排放情景的能源消费量呈先增后降趋势,分别在2029年、2037年达到峰值,但能源强度从高到低为低排放情景、基础情景、高排放情景,主要是由于GDP增长问题导致;(4)基础情景与低排放情景的CO_(2)排放在2030年达到峰值,低排放情景CO_(2)排放较基础情景降低4.4%,高排放情景的CO_(2)在2033年达到峰值、较基础情景上涨5.6%。
Based on the system dynamics method and the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)emission factor method,the CO_(2) emissions of fossil energy in Shanghai from 2000 to 2019 is quantitatively accounted.The system dynamic model of the CO_(2) emission of fossil energy in Shanghai is constructed,and the future CO_(2) emission changes under the three scenarios of basic emission,low emission and high emission are simulated.The study shows as follows:(1)According to the statistical data from 2000 to 2019,the CO_(2) emission of fossil energy in Shanghai began to climb from 2003 to 2010.The fastest growth period was from 2004 to 2007,with an increase of 32.7%.(2)The GDP of Shanghai will increase year by year.In 2050,the low emission scenario will decrease by 25%and the high emission scenario will increase by 33%compared with the basic scenario.(3)From 2020 to 2050,the energy consumption of low emission scenario will decrease,while the energy consumption of basic scenario and high emission scenario will increase first and then decrease,peaking in 2029 and 2037 respectively.However,energy intensity from high to low is low emission scenario,base scenario and high emission scenario,which is mainly caused by GDP growth.(4)CO_(2) emissions of the base and low emission scenarios will peak in 2030.The CO_(2) emission of the low emission scenario is 4.4%lower than that of the basic scenario.CO_(2) in the high emission scenario will peak in 2033,rising by 5.6%compared with the base scenario.
作者
林晓娜
张飞舟
Lin Xiaona;Zhang Feizhou(School of Earth and Space Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第9期222-230,共9页
Science and Technology Management Research
作者简介
林晓娜(1996-),女,福建厦门人,研究生,主要研究方向为碳排放;通信作者:张飞舟(1966-),男,北京人,教授,博士,主要研究方向为智慧城市、物联网以及空间信息智能处理。
