摘要
The Chinese government has set ambitious targets to reduce the per unit of GDP by 40% ~45% during 2005 to 2020 and achieve the intensity peaking of carbon emissions of CO2 emissions a- round 2030. The T21 national development model for China was developed for the purpose of analy- zing the effects of long-term national policies that relate to carbon emissions, loss of farm land, water shortage, energy security, food security, and their contributions to this reduction target. The focus of this paper is on the policies that have substantial impacts on carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Four scenarios are developed with the model to simulate future carbon emissions ： 1 ） the BAU （ busi- ness as usual） scenario, showing the likely results of continuing current policies; 2 ） the TECH （technology） scenario showing the effects of more investment in renewable energy sources and promoting more energy efficient technologies; 3 ） the BEHAVIOR scenario, showing how government tax and price policies, together with public education programs, would instigate behaviour changes towards more sustainable living; and 4 ） the TECH＆BEHA scenario, which shows the results of combining scenarios 2 and 3. The simulation results show that CO2 emissions reduction targets of China are achievable, but also require great effort to put in.
The Chinese government has set ambitious targets to reduce the intensity of carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40%45%during 2005 to 2020 and achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030.The T21 national development model for China was developed for the purpose of analyzing the effects of long-term national policies that relate to carbon emissions,loss of farm land,water shortage,energy security,food security,and their contributions to this reduction target.The focus of this paper is on the policies that have substantial impacts on carbon emissions from fossil fuels.Four scenarios are developed with the model to simulate future carbon emissions:1) the BAU（business as usual） scenario,showing the likely results of continuing current policies;2) the TECH（technology） scenario showing the effects of more investment in renewable energy sources and promoting more energy efficient technologies;3) the BEHAVIOR scenario,showing how government tax and price policies,together with public education programs,would instigate behaviour changes towards more sustainable living;and 4) the TECH&BEHA scenario,which shows the results of combining scenarios 2 and 3.The simulation results show that CO2 emissions reduction targets of China are achievable,but also require great effort to put in.
基金
Supported by the National Science&Technology Pillar Program(No.2012BAC20B09)
作者简介
To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail： thf2003@ istic, ac. cn
