农产品批发价格受封闭管控政策影响吗——来自北京市批发市场的证据被引量：10

Is Wholesale Price of Agricultural Products Affected by the Closed Control Policy——Evidence from Beijing Wholesale Markets

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摘要本文以受封闭管控政策影响的北京市华垦岳各庄农贸批发市场为实验组,以不受封闭管控政策影响的北京市大洋路农贸批发市场为对照组,构成自然实验,选取5大类27小类农产品,采用双重差分模型、三重差分模型识别封闭管控政策对农产品批发价格的影响。研究发现,第一,封闭管控政策正向影响农产品批发成交量;第二,封闭管控政策短期正向影响农产品批发价格,随时间推移,批发价格逐步向正常水平回落;第三,不同农产品受封闭管控政策影响程度及方向不同,叶菜、水果、肉类产品受到正向影响,果菜受负向影响。可见,封闭管控政策兼顾安全性和经济性,避免了价格长期巨幅波动。因此,要做好宣传引导,保障农产品供应渠道,注重仓储等基础设施建设,强化市场监管,推动民众合理消费,确保政策取消后农产品价格回归理性,保证物价稳定。 We select the Beijing Huaken Yuegezhuang Agricultural Trade Wholesale Market,which is affected by the closed control policy,as the experimental group,and the Beijing Dayang Road Agricultural Trade Wholesale Market,which is not affected by the closed control policy,as the control group,forming a natural experiment.The samples are 5 major categories and 27 small categories of agricultural products.We use double-difference models and triple-difference models to identify the impact of closed control policies on agricultural wholesale prices.We have concluded that:first,a closed control policy has a positive impact on the number of agricultural products transactions in the short term.Second,a closed control policy has a positive impact on the wholesale prices of agricultural products in the short term.Over time,wholesale prices gradually fell back to normal levels.Third,different agricultural products are affected by closed control policies in different degrees and directions.Leafy vegetables,fruits,and meat products are positively affected,vegetables are negatively affected.Therefore,the closed control policy takes into account safety and economy,and avoids long-term huge price fluctuations.This article proposes that we should do a good job of publicity and guidance,ensure the supply channels of agricultural products,pay attention to the construction of infrastructure such as storage,strengthen supervision,promote reasonable consumption of the people,ensure that agricultural prices return to rationality after the policy is canceled,and ensure price stability.

作者张瑞龙杨肖丽 ZHANG Ruilong;YANG Xiaoli

机构地区沈阳农业大学经济管理学院

出处《农业技术经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2021年第12期92-108,共17页 Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基金国家社会科学基金项目“区域公共品牌引领现代农业生产经营体系构建的理论与实证研究”(编号:18BJY132)。

关键词封闭管控政策农产品批发价格双重差分三重差分 The closed control policy Wholesale price of agricultural products Double difference model Triple difference model

分类号 F724.3 [经济管理—产业经济] F323.7 [经济管理—产业经济]

作者简介通讯作者:杨肖丽。