摘要
为理清突发公共卫生事件中网络情绪在农产品价格波动中的作用,本文以农产品批发价格指数为基础,利用网络爬虫技术抓取新浪微博上农产品文本数据,分析新冠肺炎期间网民对农产品的关注情况,并借助百度API与向量自回归模型(VAR)进行分析。结果表明:疫情期间网民对农产品的关注集中在蔬菜、畜产品等,短时间内由于一些人的恐慌、跟风、盲从等行为,这类农产品价格大幅上升;但随着国家政策调控、供给增加与网络信息公开,网民获得的信息更全面,恐慌从众心理减少,农产品价格呈现出下降趋势,最终,农产品价格趋于均衡稳定。
To analyze the role of network sentiment in the price fluctuation of agricultural products in public health emergencies,this paper used agricultural product wholesale price index and Sina Weibo agricultural product data obtained by web crawler technology as the basis to analyze the netizens’attitude of agricultural products during the period of COVID-19,and carefully studies it with the help of Baidu emotion analysis API and vector autoregressive model.the results showed that:during the epidemic period of COVID-19,internet users’attention to agricultural products was concentrated on vegetables and animal products,and due to some people’s panic,following suit,blind obedience and other behaviors,the prices of these agricultural products rose sharply in a short period of time;However,with the adjustment of national policies,the increase of market supply and the disclosure of network information,netizens get more comprehensive information,which leads to the decrease of panic herd mentality.The prices of agricultural products showed a downward trend,and finally the prices of agricultural products returned to equilibrium and stability.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2021年第2期91-94,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金(71603030)
北京市科技计划项目(Z151100002115029,Z181100002418009)
北京市农业科技项目(20200127)
关键词
新冠疫情
情感指数
农产品批发价格指数
社交网络大数据
COVID-19
sentiment index
agricultural product wholesale price index
social network data analysis
作者简介
通讯作者:陈蕾
