摘要
消费券促进需求,其对“百价之基”农产品价格的影响关系着经济运行。本文依据中国50个城市农产品批发市场的蔬菜日批发价格数据,构建自然实验,使用多期双重差分模型识别消费券与蔬菜批发价格的因果关系。结果发现:在新冠肺炎疫情及封闭管控措施发生后,消费券政策的实施导致蔬菜批发价格下降,剔除年份差异、节假日影响、内生性因素干扰后,研究结论仍然稳健。进一步研究表明,餐饮类和商超类消费券影响显著,其中餐饮+商超组合消费券作用最为明显;通过地方APP发放消费券的影响作用明显高于微信、支付宝类APP;此外,消费券影响蔬菜批发价格的机制在于促进了消费需求,进而蔬菜批发市场供货量上升,成本向规模收敛,蔬菜批发价格下降。
Consumption vouchers promote demand,so its impact on agricultural product prices can reflect the stability of economic operations.We selects daily wholesale prices and wholesale volume data of cucumbers in agricultural product wholesale markets in 50 cities in China.We build natural experiments based on these data.We have successively adopted multi-period difference-in-differences model to analyze the causal effects of consumption vouchers on cucumber wholesale prices.We find the following results.Consumption vouchers caused a significant drop in the wholesale price of cucumbers.After excluding year difference,the influence of holidays,and the interference of endogenous factors,the conclusion is robust.Then,consumption vouchers issued to restaurants and supermarkets can significantly affect the wholesale price of cucumbers,of which the combined consumption vouchers for restaurants add supermarkets have the most obvious effect.The stimulus effect of issuing consumption vouchers through local APP is significantly higher than that of ordinary APP.In addition,the mechanism by which consumption vouchers affect the wholesale price of vegetables is to promote consumer demand,which in turn leads to an increase in supply in the wholesale market,a convergence of costs to scale,and a decline in wholesale prices.
作者
张瑞龙
杨肖丽
ZHANG Ruilong;YANG Xiaoli
出处
《农业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第9期86-104,共19页
Journal of Agrotechnical Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“区域公共品牌引领现代农业生产经营体系构建的理论与实证研究”(编号:18BJY132)。
关键词
批发价格
消费券
批发市场
自然实验
蔬菜
Wholesale price
Consumption vouchers
Wholesale markets
Natural experiment
Cucumber
作者简介
通讯作者:杨肖丽。
