摘要
2020年初,为防止新冠肺炎疫情蔓延,中国采取了严苛的防控措施。短期内的社会停摆对国内经济造成了巨大冲击;同时也抑制了碳排放量的增长。本文构建了一个包含碳排放模块的开放经济CGE模型,根据冲击来源设定不同情境,量化分析新冠肺炎疫情冲击造成的宏观经济、产业扩散以及CO_(2)减排效应。研究结果表明,新冠肺炎疫情对中国GDP的影响约为-2.74%,从冲击路径看,供给侧冲击是新冠肺炎疫情的主导冲击路径,从冲击来源看,防控措施的影响远大于疾病本身的影响。在碳排放方面,虽然疫情冲击在一定程度上减少了碳排放量,但经济代价极大,具有短期性和不可持续性。最后,基于后疫情时代,为经济恢复与碳减排发展提出相关建议。
At the beginning of 2020,China took the most stringent preventive measures in the history to prevent COVID-19 from spreading.On the one hand,the short-term social shutdown has had a great impact on the domestic economy,on the other hand,it has also restrained the growth of carbon emissions.This paper constructs an open economy CGE model that includes a carbon emission module,sets different scenarios according to the source of the impact,quantitatively analyzes the macroeconomic,industrial fluctuation and CO_(2) reduction effects caused by COVID-19.The research results show that China's GDP fell by-2.74%under the shock of epidemic.From the perspective of the impact path,the supply-side shock plays a dominant role.In terms of the source of the adverse effects,taking prevention and control measures has a greater impact on the economy than the disease itself.As for carbon emissions,the shock of COVID-19 has indeed brought additional emission reduction effects to a limited extent,but also carried significant economic costs.The eco-benefit is short-term and unsustainable.Finally,based on the post-epidemic era,relevant suggestions are made for the development of the economy and carbon emission reduction.
作者
洪竞科
王小苑
Hong Jingke;Wang Xiaoyuan(School of Management Science and Real Estate,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China)
出处
《工业技术经济》
北大核心
2022年第1期132-141,共10页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“建设项目物化能耗区域间作用机制与差异化测度模型研究”(项目编号:71801023)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“建设工程项目资源代谢多重复杂性的形成机理、测度模式与作用机制研究”(项目编号:72071022)。
作者简介
洪竞科,重庆大学管理科学与房地产学院研究员,博士,博士生导师。研究方向:城市资源管理与政策研究;通讯作者:王小苑,重庆大学管理科学与房地产学院硕士研究生。研究方向:宏观经济与持续发展。
