摘要
后疫情阶段,国内外市场需求不振、投资下滑以及新旧动能转换所致的产出下降将继续推升制造业企业的负债规模。为了探索如何在充分尊重市场运行机制和规律的基础上,把握后疫情时期制造业复苏与“稳杠杆”之间的平衡,本文运用2008—2017年1534家A股制造业上市公司的财务数据,实证检验了市场冲击下资产配置调整对企业负债水平的影响。研究发现,市场冲击对企业负债水平的调节机制具有非对称性。市场剧烈正向冲击下,投资增长促进了企业债务融资扩张行为,对债务资金进入具有强烈诱导作用;而负向冲击下,投资下滑和产能利用率降低对债务的清偿具有明显抑制作用。因此,通过提振有效投资、合理配置资产激发消费需求潜力,引导企业市场预期,实现市场机制与政策机制的有机结合是当前“稳杠杆”工作的关键。
In the post-epidemic period,the shrinking domestic and foreign demand,the decline in investment and output will push up manufacturing companies’debt scale.In order to explore how to grasp the balance between manufacturing recovery and“stabilizing leverage”in the post-epidemic period on the basis of fully respecting the market operation mechanism and rules,this paper selects the financial data of 1534 A-share manufacturing listed companies from 2008 to 2017 to empirically test the impact of assets allocation adjustment on corporate debt level with market shocks.The results show that the moderating mechanism of market shocks on corporate debt levels is asymmetric.Specifically,the increase in investment promotes debt expansion of firms under severe positive shocks,which has a strong inducing effect on the entry of debt capital.In contrast,the decline in investment and the inefficient capacity utilization have an inhibitory effect on debt repayment and accumulate debts for firms under the negative market shocks.Therefore,to stabilize the leverage,the main task is to boost the effective investment and allocate assets reasonably so as to stimulate the potential of consumer demand and guide companies’market expectations for achieving organic combination of market mechanism and policy mechanism.
作者
孙巍
耿丹青
SUN Wei;GENG Danqing(Center for Quantitative Economics/Business School,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期27-35,共9页
Modern Economic Science
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“新常态下促进经济稳定增长的要素配置与产业升级政策研究”(16JJD790015)。
关键词
市场冲击
负债水平
资产配置
债务融资
稳杠杆
制造业复苏
供给侧结构性改革
market shocks
debt level
asset allocation
debt financing
leverage stabilization
manufacturing recovery
supply-side structural reform
作者简介
孙巍,男,吉林大学数量经济研究中心/商学院教授,博士生导师,研究方向:微观经济计量分析、产业经济学;通信作者:耿丹青,女,吉林大学数量经济研究中心/商学院博士研究生;研究方向:微观经济计量分析、公司金融,电子邮箱:boyi0012008@126.com。