摘要
随着经济政策不确定性日益成为常态,其对经济增长以及市场主体可能产生的负面影响逐渐引起学者的关注,本文考察证券分析师在盈余预测过程中是否会考虑经济政策不确定性对企业的影响,进而调整其对企业历史会计信息的利用。研究发现,经济政策不确定性的升高显著降低了企业的盈余持续性,证券分析师在预测盈余时的确会减少对企业历史会计盈余信息的倚重;进一步研究发现,证券分析师所做的调整并不充分。分组检验结果显示,在标的公司由“非八大”会计师事务所审计时,证券分析师会对经济政策不确定性进行充分调整;对于无形资产比重高、所在地市场化程度高的企业,证券分析师虽然同样会减少对历史盈余信息的倚重,但调整程度并不充分。本文从证券分析师的角度,揭示了经济政策不确定性可能带来的负面影响。
Under the acknowledged background of China’s high economic policy uncertainty(EPU)level,researches exploring its negative effects on economic growth and market participants have gained momentum in recent years.This paper studies the role of EPU plays in analysts’reliance on firms’accounting information when they forecast future earnings.Our analyses indicate that under high level of EPU,firms’earnings persistence is harmed,leading analysts to rely less on past earnings.However,the adjustment made is not sufficient to offset the influence derived from high EPU.Further analyses also show that analysts respond sufficiently to high EPU when targeted firms are audited by Big 8 auditors,but react insufficiently if firms are located in high-market-index areas or possessed with more intangible assets,while for the latter ones,adjustment are still applied to restrain analysts’dependence on accounting information.From the perspective of the accounting information used by analysts,our results reveal the possible negative effects brought by EPU.
作者
陈宁
方军雄
NING CHEN;JUNXIONG FANG
出处
《中国会计评论》
2022年第1期45-74,共30页
China Accounting Review
基金
国家自然科学基金“制度变迁、股价崩盘经济后果与修复策略研究”(71872048)的阶段性成果
关键词
经济政策不确定性
证券分析师预测
会计信息利用
Economic Policy Uncertainty
Analyst Forecasts
Usage of Accounting Information
作者简介
通信作者:方军雄,地址:浙江省杭州市下沙高教园区学源街18号,邮编:310018,E-mail:jxfang@fudan.edu.cn
