摘要
资源禀赋变化和诱致性农业技术变迁共同决定了中国粮食增长的现实路径。以玉米为对象,采用超越对数生产函数和1978—2018年省级面板数据,系统考察了农业劳动价格持续上涨背景下中国粮食生产的要素替代弹性,判断其是否发生劳动节约型的诱致性技术变迁,并利用单要素生产率与二维相图探究中国粮食增长路径转型。结果表明:中国玉米生产表现出明显的劳动节约倾向,东北、黄淮海与西部三大产区的机械—劳动替代弹性存在差异,但这种差异正在缩小并逐渐趋同;中国玉米增长路径在21世纪初发生了历史性转型,由土地生产率导向转向劳动生产率导向。因土地—劳动比率优化未有突破,中国走的是依靠提升土地生产率推动劳动生产率增长的第三类路径,这对今后如何进一步提升粮食生产率有重要启示。结论的现实价值在于,既要因地制宜推动农业机械化技术的推广,包括加强适宜山地的农机具研发,推进丘陵山地耕地的宜机化改造,大力发展农机社会化服务;也要协调发展土地节约型技术,如生物良种培育与推广、病虫害绿色防控、肥药减量化高效化等。
The growth path of China’s grain production is determined by agricultural factor endowment change and induced technology change.Based on the 1978—2018 provincal panel data of corn production,this paper studies the changes of factors’substitution elasticities and identifies whether it has happened labour-saving induced technological change by a logarithm production function.Furtherly,this paper also explores the growth path of China’s corn production by the method of single factor productivity and two-dimensional phase diagram.China’s corn production appears to have an obvious tendency of labor saving with regional difference of elasticities of mechanical-labor substitution among Northeast China,Huang-Huai-Hai region,and Western China,while the development trend of its elasticity is cornverging.The growth path of China’s corn production has undergone a historic transformation from land productivity orientation to labor productivity orientation since the 21st century.It is consistant with the third path of replying on improving land productivity to promote labor productivity growth.The implications of the conclusion lie in that it is necessary to promote agricultural mechanization according to local conditions,including strengthening the research of agricultural machinery suitable for mountainous areas,promoting cultivated land suitable for mechanization in hilly and mountainous areas,and developing socialized services of agricultural machinery.At the same time,it is necessary to develop land-saving technologies,including improved seed cultivation,green control of diseases and pests,fertilizer and pestcide reduction,and other biochemical technological progress.
作者
张琪
朱满德
刘超
ZHANG Qi;ZHU Man-de;LIU Chao(School of Economics,Guizhou University,Guiyang,Guizhou 550025,China;School of Business,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang,Guizhou 550018,China)
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第1期67-77,共11页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71963005,72063003)
贵州大学创新基金(CJ201936)。
关键词
资源禀赋
诱致性技术变迁
土地生产率导向
劳动生产率导向
玉米
factor endowment
induced technological change
land productivity orientation
labor productivity orientation
corn
作者简介
张琪(1993—),女,河南新蔡人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为区域经济与政策,E-mail:zhangqi_2013@163.com;通信作者:朱满德(1983—),男,安徽庐江人,博士,教授,主要研究方向为农业经济理论与政策,E-mail:mdzhu@gzu.edu.cn。
