美国制造业就业及变动机制研究——基于全球价值链视角被引量：3

Research on Employment and Changing Mechanism of American Manufacturing Industry——From the Perspective of Global Value Cha

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摘要美国制造业失业率上升是中美贸易造成的吗?本文基于全球价值链视角,将美国制造业就业分为国内最终产品需求、传统贸易、简单GVC出口和复杂GVC出口四个部分,并采用结构分解技术厘清美国制造业就业的变动机制;依据价值链分解,从美国制造业结构分解因素中剥离出各国贸易对美国制造业就业的影响,从而全面地刻画美国制造业就业及其变动机制。研究发现:在美国总就业人数增加的同时制造业就业人数却在减少;在制造业就业构成中,国内最终产品需求规模占主要比例,其次传统贸易部分对美国制造业就业的影响较大,简单GVC贸易对制造业就业的影响高于复杂GVC贸易对制造业就业的影响;结构分解结果表明,造成美国制造业就业减少的主要原因是劳动力系数的变化;对贸易经济体而言,带动美国制造业就业位列前三的国家分别是中国、加拿大和墨西哥。 Is the rise of unemployment in the US manufacturing industry caused by China-US trade?Based on the global value chain perspective,this paper divided US manufacturing employment into four components.domestic final product demand,traditional trade,simple GVC export and complex GVC export;Then the paper clarified the changing mechanism of employment in the US manufacturing industry using the structure decomposition analysis method.According to the decomposition of the value chain,the employment situation of the US manufacturing industry is more comprehensively described.Furthermore,this paper separated the influence of trade with other countries on the em⁃ployment of the US manufacturing industry from the decomposition factor of the US manufacturing structure.The study finds that the total number of employed people in the United States is increasing,but the number of manufacturing employment is decreasing,and its proportion is relatively low comparing to total employment.In the manufacturing employment component,the domestic final product demand accounts for the main proportion,followed by the traditional trade of the US.The impact of simple GVC trade on manufacturing employment is higher than that of complex GVC trade on.The result of structural decomposition shows that the main reason for the decrease of employment in the US manufacturing industry is the change of labor coefficient.For trade economies,the countries that have the greatest effect on US manufacturing employment are China,Canada and Mexico.

作者张亚斌杨翔宇钟源 ZHANG Yabin;YANG Xiangyu;ZHONG Yuan

机构地区湖南大学经济与贸易学院

出处《国际贸易问题》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第11期94-108,共15页 Journal of International Trade

基金国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球价值链背景下中美新型大国贸易关系与贸易利益研究”(18ZDA068) 国家自然科学基金青年项目“全球价值链分工下中国对外贸易包容性发展的测度、实证及路径优化研究”(71803042)。

关键词制造业就业国内最终需求简单(复杂)GVC 结构分解分析 Employment Manufacturing Domestic Final Demand Simple(Complex)GVC Structural Decomposition Analysis

分类号 F74 [经济管理—国际贸易]

作者简介张亚斌,湖南大学经济与贸易学院教授;通讯作者:杨翔宇,湖南大学经济与贸易学院博士研究生,电子信箱xiangyuyang@126􀆰com;钟源,湖南大学经济与贸易学院博士研究生。