人口老龄化、人力资本积累与经济高质量发展被引量：57

Population Aging,Human Capital Accumulation,and High-quality Economic Development

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摘要当前,我国正处于经济高速度增长向高质量发展的过渡阶段,人力资本积累水平的提高是推动我国经济高质量发展的核心因素,人口老龄化对人力资本积累的影响正日益凸显。本文首先基于MalmquistLuenberger(ML)指数构建经济高质量发展系数,然后选取我国1998—2018年省级层面的面板数据,并建立动态面板模型检验人口老龄化如何通过人力资本积累影响经济高质量发展水平。研究结果显示:样本期间,我国各省份的经济高质量发展水平呈波动上升的趋势;经济高质量发展存在显著的惯性特征,前一期的经济高质量发展会对后一期的经济高质量发展产生促进作用;人口老龄化程度的加剧有利于推动经济高质量发展,其不仅会通过人力资本数量效应对经济高质量发展产生积极影响,还会通过人力资本质量效应推动经济高质量发展。此外,人口少子化也会对经济高质量发展产生推动作用,但其人力资本数量效应和人力资本质量效应均显著为负。最后,根据理论分析和实证研究的结果得出了相应启示。 At present,China is in the transition period from high-speed economic growth to high-quality development.The improvement of human capital accumulation is the core factor that promotes the high-quality development of our economy,the impact of population aging on human capital accumulation is becoming increasingly prominent.This article first builds a high-quality economic development index based on the Malmquist-Luenberger(ML)index,then selects provincial-level panel data from 1998 to 2018 in China and establishes dynamic panel model to test how population ageing affects the level of high-quality economic development through human capital accumulation.The research results show that:during the sample period,the high-quality economic development levels of all provinces in China showed a rising trend;the high-quality economic development has significant inertial characteristics,the high-quality economic development in the previous period will have positive impact on the high-quality economic development in the later period.The intensification of population aging is conducive to promoting high-quality economic development,which will not only have a positive impact on high-quality economic development through the quantitative effect of human capital,but also promote high-quality economic development through the human capital quality effect.In addition,the low birth rate of population will also promote the high-quality development of the economy,but both of it’s human capital quantity effect and human capital quality effect are significantly negative.Finally,the corresponding inspiration is put forward based on the results of theoretical analysis and empirical research.

作者刘成坤林明裕 Liu Chengkun;Lin Mingyu

机构地区江西财经大学统计学院华侨大学经济与金融学院

出处《经济问题探索》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第7期168-179,共12页 Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基金国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国低生育率的成因及其对经济增长的长短期影响——实证检验与政策选择”(71973049)。

关键词人口老龄化人力资本经济高质量发展动态面板模型 Population aging human capital High-quality economic development Dynamic panel model

分类号 C971 [经济管理—劳动经济] F061.2 [经济管理—政治经济学]

作者简介刘成坤(1990-),男,江西财经大学统计学院讲师,江西财经大学应用经济学博士后,经济学博士,研究方向:经济增长与经济发展、宏观经济计量分析;林明裕(1992-),男,华价大学经济与金融学院博士研究生,研究方向:宏观经济模型及应用。