我国养老保险并轨制改革的收入和消费效应分析被引量：9

An Analysis on the Effects of Pension System’s Merger Reform on Residents’Income and Consumption in China

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摘要自2008年起,我国制定并实施了一系列针对养老保险制度的改革政策,由先前的养老保险“双轨制”逐步转变到统一收缴、统一管理的社会统筹与个人缴费相结合的养老保险制度.机关事业单位工作人员缴纳养老保险费用这一政策变动是否会影响居民收入和消费的稳定性?运用中国居民收入调查(CHIP)数据,利用双重差分方法,对2008年实施的“事业单位工作人员养老保险试点改革”对居民收入和消费的影响效应进行评估.研究发现:养老保险“并轨制”改革,显著提高了改革区居民的收入,降低了居民家庭的消费支出.对居民消费结构变化的进一步分析发现,改革使居民衣着和其他类消费的占比减少,住房类消费占比提高,而对食品、医疗和教育类消费占比没有影响.说明改革冲击使居民在消费上表现出规避风险的行为特征,揭示了政策宣传和普及程度不足、政务透明度不高等问题. Since the year of 2008,China has made and implemented a series of reform policies on the pension system which has been changed from“Dual Track”system into a unified collected and managed one of“social pooling combining with individual account”.Will the pension reform for the staff of government organizations and institutions affect the stability of residents’income and consumption?This paper uses China Household Income Projects(CHIP)data to evaluate the effects of“the pension system pilot reform of government organizations and institutions”in 2008 by means of economic theory and econometric method(difference-in-differences).The results show that the reform on pension system significantly increases residents’income and decreases their consumption level.A further study on the consumption structure shows that reform decreases the ratio of clothing and other consumption item and increases that of housing consumption,however,exerts little influence on food,medical and education consumption.A conclusion is drawn that it is the shock of reform that inspires people’s risk recognition behavior,which highlights the lack of publicity and transparency of current policies.

作者宁光杰范义航 Ning Guangjie;Fan Yihang(Business School,Shandong University,Weihai 264209,P.R.China;China Life Pension Company Limited,Beijing 100033,P.R.China)

机构地区山东大学(威海)商学院中国人寿养老保险股份有限公司

出处《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第3期136-148,共13页 Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基金国家自然科学基金项目“信息技术发展、技能转换与农村劳动力产业流向研究”(71973081).

关键词养老保险改革双重差分收入消费水平消费结构 Pension reform Difference-in-differences Income Consumption level Consumption structure