摘要
本文构建了一个两期的世代交叠模型,通过理论演绎发现,如果公共财政教育支出让家庭感知到其作为生育补贴的方式进入家庭生育决策模型中,那么增加公共财政教育支出的确会促进社会生育。进一步采用2006-2017年省级面板数据,进行经验研究和异质性分析发现:增加公共财政教育支出会促进社会生育但不显著;教育早期阶段财政投入越大,越会显著地促进社会生育,尤其在幼儿园阶段,财政教育支出每增加1%,出生率上升0.495‰;相比补贴给教育供方,补贴给教育需方家庭的财政教育支出更可能会促进社会生育,等等。给我们的政策启示在于,让民众感知到财政教育支出对生育成本的降低作用,加大幼儿园以及学前的财政教育支出,增强对教育需求方家庭的补贴。
By constructing a two-period generation overlapping equilibrium model,it was found that if public education expenditure was introduced into family decision-making model as a way of maternity subsidy,increasing public education expenditure would indeed promote social fertility.Further using the provincial panel data from 2006 to 2017,empirical research and he-terogeneity analysis show tha increasing public financial expenditure on education promotes social fertility but not significant;the greater financial investment in early stage of education,the more significant it will promote social fertility.Especially in kindergarten stage,for every 1%increase in financial expenditure on education,the birth rate rises by 0.495;compared with financial subsidies to educational suppliers;for example,the subsidies to families in need of education are more likely to promote social fertility,and so on.The policy implication is to increase financial expenditure on kindergartens and preschool education,and to increase subsidies for families in need of education.
作者
杨华磊
胡浩钰
张文超
沈政
YANG Hua-lei;HU Hao-yu;ZHANG Wen-chao;SHEN Zheng(School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Economics and Management Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou,311300,China)
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期2-10,共9页
Population and Development
基金
国家自科项目“农村女性非农就业对生育决策的影响机理与生育支持政策研究”(71903177)
教育部人文社科项目“60后婴儿潮退出劳动市场对经济增长的冲击效应模拟与应对策略研究”(19YJC790167)
中央高校基本科研业务费“延迟退休的微观效应与配套政策研究”(2722019JCG063)。
关键词
教育支出
世代交叠模型
生育水平
固定效应模型
Education Expenditures
Generation Overlapping Model
Fertility Level
Fixed Effect Model
作者简介
杨华磊(1986-),男,中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,讲师,管理学博士,研究方向:人口经济与社会保障;胡浩钰(1993-),男,上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,博士研究生,研究方向:社会保障。
