摘要
建筑业作为国民经济的支柱产业,存在碳排放量巨大、能耗较高等问题,已成为节能减排的重点行业.为了实现我国的节能减排目标,对建筑业碳排放进行总量控制及预测,将基于系统动力学引入建筑业碳排放预测研究中,综合分析经济、能源、人口、环境子系统要素之间的影响关系,并建立存量流量图进行系统仿真.通过三种方案的情景分析预测建筑业直接碳排放,最后从建材生产、产业结构、能源结构三个角度提出建筑业碳减排的政策建议.
The construction industry as a pillar industry of the national economy,facing many problems such as huge carbon emissions and high energy consumption,has become a key industry for energy conservation and emission reduction.In order to achieve China’s energy conservation and emission reduction targets,to control and predict of carbon emissions,the system dynamics model was developed to predict carbon emission,and the comprehensive analysis of relat;onships among economic,energy,population,and environmental subsystem elements was carried out.Then we established a stock flow diagram for system simulation and set three scenarios to predict the direct carbon emissions of the construction industry.Finally the policy recommendations for carbon emission reduction were proposed from the perspectives of building materials production,industrial structure,and energy structure.
作者
赵冬蕾
刘伊生
ZHAO Donglei;LIU Yisheng(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《河南科学》
2019年第12期2025-2033,共9页
Henan Science
基金
国家“十三五”重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0704400)。
关键词
建筑业
碳排放
系统动力学
情景分析
construction industry
carbon emissions
system dynamics
scenario analysis
作者简介
赵冬蕾(1996-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事建筑碳排放、工程项目管理研究工作;通信作者:刘伊生(1962-),男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事工程项目管理、绿色建筑方向研究工作。
