摘要
如何在经济新常态和生态文明背景下,逐步改善大气环境质量,实现经济和环境的协调发展是江苏当前面临的一个重要问题。为有效降低江苏雾霾浓度,需要深入剖析其背后的驱动因素,全面把握驱动因素的变动特征,准确预测江苏雾霾未来发展趋势。已有研究多集中于探讨雾霾污染的外部驱动因素,侧重于雾霾污染驱动因素的计量方法应用,对于雾霾治理具有重要的参考价值,但对江苏雾霾驱动因素的分析鲜有涉及,尤其是运用指数分解法剖析其内在驱动因素方面的分析,更是有待深入。文章通过考虑产污系数效应(即煤炭、汽油和柴油消费量占总体能源消费量的比重),基于2005—2015年江苏13个地级市的PM2.5浓度数据,采用指数分解法将江苏雾霾变动分解为人口规模、人均收入、产业结构、能源消费强度、产污系数、能源结构六种驱动效应,并运用情景分析法对江苏雾霾变化趋势进行预测。计算结果表明:一是江苏整体雾霾污染不断加剧,不同城市间的雾霾污染变动情况具有较大的差异化;二是收入效应是江苏雾霾的主要驱动因素,产业结构效应、能源消费强度效应、产污系数效应和能源消费结构效应均对雾霾排放具有抑制作用,人口规模效应则促进了雾霾排放,苏北地区的治霾效果较苏中和苏南地区更为突出;三是在基准、低排放和强化低排放情景下,江苏雾霾总体上均呈下降趋势。根据上述研究结论,提出了提高区域合作水平、开发使用新能源、促进绿色经济发展、持续推进供给侧结构性改革、引进先进的低霾环保技术等政策建议。
In the context of the new economic normal and ecological civilization,an important issue currently facing Jiangsu is how to gradually improve the quality of the atmospheric environment and realize the coordinated development of economy and environment.In order to effectively reduce the smog concentration in Jiangsu,it is necessary to deeply analyze the driving factors behind it,comprehensively grasp its changing characteristics,and accurately predict its future development trend.The internal driving factors of smog pollution in Jiangsu have rarely been analyzed in the existing research,and the exponential decomposition method needs further study in-depth.Based on the PM2.5 concentration data of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu from 2005 to 2015,the effect of pollution production coefficient(that is,the proportion of coal,gasoline and diesel consumption in total energy consumption)is considered.The smog variation is decomposed into six driving effects of population size,per capita income,industrial structure,energy consumption intensity,pollution production coefficient,and energy structure,and the scenario analysis method is used to predict the changing trend of smog in Jiangsu.The calculation results show that:the overall smog pollution in Jiangsu is intensifying,and the changes in smog pollution among different cities are greatly different;the income effect is the main driving factor for smog in Jiangsu,and the industrial structure effect and energy consumption intensity effect,pollution production coefficient effect,and energy consumption structure effect all have an inhibitory effect on smog emission,and population size effect promotes smog emission;the effect of smog control in northern Jiangsu is more prominent than that in central and southern Jiangsu;Under the baseline,low-emission,and enhanced low-emission scenarios,Jiangsu's smog has generally declined.Based on the above research conclusions,policy suggestions were raised to improve the level of regional cooperation,develop and use new energy sources,promote green economic development,continue to advance supply-side structural reforms,and introduce advanced low-smog environmental protection technologies.
作者
岳书敬
高鹏
YUE Shu-jing;GAO Peng(School of Economics and Management,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《徐州工程学院学报（社会科学版）》
2020年第1期35-47,共13页
Journal of Xuzhou Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition
基金
江苏省社科基金项目“江苏灰霾排放的现状分析及管控优化研究”(17GLB008)。
关键词
雾霾污染
驱动因素
指数分解
LMDI方法
情景分析
预测
smog pollution
driving factors
index decomposition
LMDI method
scenario analysis
forecast
作者简介
岳书敬(1979-),男,河南新乡人,东南大学经济管理学院教授,博士,博士生导师,主要从事环境经济学研究;高鹏(1993-),男,山东滨州人,东南大学经济管理学院博士研究生,主要从事环境经济学研究。
