摘要
[目的]研究福建省福州新区近15 a来的土地利用变化并对未来15 a的变化进行预测,并对30 a的生境质量变化进行分析;将预测结果与规划形成对比,为土地利用规划提供参考。[方法]以福建省福州新区为例,基于2000年Landsat_ETM+和2015年Landsat_OLT遥感影像解译的土地利用数据,对国家级新区--福州新区的土地利用动态变化进行空间分析,运用CA-Markov模型对其2030年的土地利用格局进行预测。在此基础上,进一步采用InVEST模型对新区内过去,现在和未来的生境质量进行评价。[结果]①15 a间福州新区耕地、林地、水域和建设用地变化速度较快,草地和海域变化相对较小,未利用地变化较小但变化较为剧烈;②CA-Markov模型预测显示研究区2015-2030年土地利用变化趋势与2000-2015年大体相同,表现为除未利用地呈现增加的趋势外,建设用地和生态用地分别呈现急剧扩张和持续减少的趋势;③2000-2030年研究区内大量耕地、林地、草地和水域向建设用地转化,导致威胁源的增加,进一步降低了生境质量。[结论]福州新区由于建设用地快速扩张导致区内生境质量严重下降,应加强生态保育,合理控制建设用地的增长,避免生境质量进一步恶化。建议将2030年用地规划中的建设用地边界作为限制建设区边界,将预测结果作为允许建设区边界,提高建设用地的集约利用程度。
[Objective]This paper studies the land use change in Fuzhou New District of Fujian Province from 2000 to 2015,forecasts the land use pattern in 2030,analyzes the habitat quality change in 2000-2030,and compares the predicted results with the overall planning of the new district,in order to provide a reference for the rational use of land resources in the later stage of the new district.[Methods]Taking Fuzhou New District of Fujian Province as an example,based on the data of land use in 2000 and 2015,which was interpreted by Landsat_ETM+and Landsat_OLI remote sensing image,the spatial analysis model of land use change was used to analyze the dynamic change of land use in Fuzhou New District,and the CA-Markov model was used to predict the land use pattern in 2030.On this basis,the past,present and future habitat qualities in the new district were further evaluated by the InVEST model.[Results]①During 2000-2015,the cultivated land,forest land,water area and construction land in Fuzhou New District changed rapidly,the change of grassland and sea area was relatively small,and the change of unused land area was relatively small,but the transfer in and out was more intense;②CA-Markov model prediction showed that the change trend of land use in the study area in 2015-2030 was basically the same as that in 2000-2015.In addition to the increasing trend of unused land,the construction land and ecological land showed the trend of rapid expansion and continuous reduction respectively;③From 2000 to 2030,a large number of cultivated land,forest land,grassland and water area in the study area transformed into construction land,resulting in the increase of threat sources and further reducing the habitat quality.[Conclusion]Due to the rapid expansion of construction land in Fuzhou New District,the quality of habitat in the area is seriously reduced.We should strengthen ecological conservation,reasonably control the growth of construction land,and avoid the further deterioration of habitat quality.The boundary of construction land in 2030 land use planning should be taken as the boundary of restricted construction area,and the predicted result should be taken as the boundary of permitted construction area,so as to improve the intensive utilization of construction land.
作者
黄康
戴文远
黄万里
欧惠
胡航箫
Huang Kang;Dai Wenyuan;Huang Wanli;Ou Hui;Hu Hangxiao(School of Geographical Sciences,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350007,China;Institute of Geography,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350007,China;Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350007,China)
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第6期155-162,共8页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
福建省自然科学基金项目“区域生态安全格局对城市空间快速增长的响应与约束机制研究”(2018J01741)
福建省科技厅公益类项目(2017R1034-2)。
作者简介
第一作者:黄康(1995-),男(汉族),江西省南昌市人,硕士研究生,研究方向为土地利用管理。E-mail:814958549@qq.com;通讯作者:戴文远(1972-),男(汉族),福建省莆田市人,硕士,副教授,主要从事土地利用与城乡发展研究。E-mail:dwygeo@fjnu.edu.cn。
