摘要
目的预测我院皮肤科病房2007—2018年寻常型银屑病各证型的趋势,探讨灰色预测模型GM(1,1)在时间序列资料中的应用,建立预测病房寻常型银屑病各证候发生的时间序列模型,为预防和寻常型银屑病治疗疗效提供统计学依据。方法根据医院2007—2018年皮肤科病房寻常型银屑病各证型数据,应用MATLAB软件建立灰色预测模型并进行模型评价,预测2019—2021年的寻常型银屑病病房收治的主要证型。结果GM(1,1)模型为湿热证:Y(t)1=57.1493e^0.3355(t-1)-24.794,血热证:Y(t)3=49.9621^e0.126(t-1)-17.363,火毒炽盛证:Y(t)2=51.3527^e0.2253(t-1)-21.942。三个证型预测值的相对误差<20%,模型精度为优(湿热证:C1=0.22,P1=1.00,火毒炽盛证:C2=0.28,P2=1.00,血热证:C3=0.24,P3=1.00),预测效果好,2019—2021年的寻常型银屑病病房收治的主要证型为湿热证、血热证、火毒炽盛证。结论GM(1,1)灰色模型能很好的拟合寻常型银屑病各证型在病房的变动趋势,湿热证、血热证、火毒炽盛证将是2019年、2020年及2021年病房收治的主要证型。有利于临床皮肤科医生对寻常型银屑病证候转归的研究及预防治疗做出有效决策。
Objective In order to predict the trend of syndrome of psoriasis vulgaris in-patient department from 2019 to 2021 which grey forecasting model GM(1,1)is applied in the time series data in our hospital.The prediction model on syndrome of psoriasis vulgaris is built on annual quantity of dermatology in-patient.This study provides scientific and statistical evidence according to optimization of medical treatment resource collection.Methods All of the data collection based on the in-patients syndromes of psoriasis vulgaris from 2007 to 2018,the grey forecasting model GM(1,1)was used to calculate model evaluation.The syndromes of psoriasis vulgaris were predicted from 2019 to 2021,respectively.Results The grey forecasting model GM(1,1)showed that the dampness-heat syndrome:Y(t)1=57.1493^e0.335 5(t-1)-24.794,the blood-heat syndrome:Y(t)3=49.9621^e0.126(t-1)-17.363,the blazing fire-toxin syndrome:Y(t)2=51.3527^e0.2253(t-1)-21.942.The relative error values of predictive value were all less than 20 percent and model was testified to be satisfied(the dampness-heat syndrome:C1=0.27,P1=1.00;the blazing fire-toxin syndrome:C2=0.21,P2=1.00;the blood-heat syndrome:C3=0.28,P3=1.00).The predictive values of three syndromes from 2019 to 2021 were 32.83,29.31 and 29.19 in the dampness-heat syndrome,28.52,30.24 and 30.86 in the blood-heat syndrome,and 27.66,29.47 and 33.45 in the blazing fire-toxin syndrome.Conclusion The grey forecasting model GM(1,1)has a good matching.The hospital in-patient main syndrome of psoriasis vulgaris will be dampness-heat,blood-heat and blazing fire-toxin syndrome in the next three years.
作者
杨雪松
叶建州
罗光云
王丽波
李柏橙
Yang Xuesong;Ye Jianzhou;Luo guangyun;Wang Libo;Li Bocheng(First Affiliated Hospital of Yunnan University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Kunming 650021,China;Yunnan University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Kunming 650500,China)
出处
《中国中西医结合皮肤性病学杂志》
CAS
2019年第3期193-197,共5页
Chinese Journal of Dermatovenereology of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine
