摘要
基于Agent的模型(Agent-based models,ABM)研究已成为水资源管理研究理论与方法的重要补充。对水资源管理ABM研究进行归纳与展望,有助于探索优化中国水资源管理体制和机制。在阐述水资源管理ABM概念及内涵的基础上,提炼出主体决策规则和互作机制两个建模核心内容,并对其方法进行了归纳分析;从流域水资源优化配置、城镇居民用水管理和灌区水资源管理3个方面,对2009—2018年主要水资源管理ABM研究进行了综述;针对当前研究的难点与不足,提出未来研究重点:①拓展复杂适应理论在水资源管理领域的应用;②加强不确定性水资源管理ABM研究;③探索基于机器学习的决策规则建模方法;④重视参数校准和结果校验及检验方法;⑤加强模型表述格式标准化进程;⑥综合权衡水资源管理ABM框架。
Agent-based modeling (ABM) has enriched the theory and methods of research in water resources management. Better understanding of the state-of-the-art of ABM and its potential in the field of water resources management can promote institutional development and reform in China s water resources management system. In this paper,while ABM of water resources management (WR-ABM) is defined,its key components-agent decision rules and agent interactions-are identified and their modeling approaches are summarized. Various WR-ABMs applied in basin-scale optimal water allocation,urban household water use and agricultural water management published during the period of 2009-2018 are carefully reviewed. Future research on the use of WR-ABMs that should address the challenges and weakness in the water resources management are discussed and several research directions are recommended herein:① further expanding the use of complex adaptive system theory in the field of water resources management;② coupling ABM and water resources system models that include uncertainties;③ exploring the use of machine learning algorithms in the decision-making modeling;④ improving the methods used in the model parameter calibration,result verification and validation;⑤ using standard documentation protocol,such as the ODD protocol,for the description of models;and ⑥ achieving comprehensive and optimal balance between completeness and simplification in model design.
作者
练继建
徐梓曜
宾零陵
徐奎
CHANHoi Yi
LIAN Jijian;XU Ziyao;BIN Lingling;XU Kui(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Comprehensive Development and Management Center,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100053,China)
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期282-293,共12页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0401905)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51809192)~~
作者简介
练继建(1965-),男,福建建瓯人,教授,博士研究生导师,主要从事水利水电工程等研究。E-mail:jjlian@tju.edu.cn;通信作者:徐梓曜,E-mail:zx66@cornell.edu.
