摘要
[目的/意义]将政策变迁理论置于网络舆情下重新审视,有助于推动网络情境下政策变迁理论的本土化与知识演进,使其更好地解释当代中国的政策变迁。[方法/过程]以间断-均衡模型为例,在充分考察网络舆情特征的基础上,尝试将不同的舆情要素分别嵌入到模型的"政策形象"与"政策议定场所"的触发路径中,进而提出模型的优化设想,并通过引入30个舆情案例和借助清晰集定性比较分析方法,对优化设想展开实证检验。[结果/结论]结果表明:"事件触发基调转变"和"媒体舆情叠加聚合"两个舆情要素均能有效触发"政策形象"的转变,而"意见领袖偏好引导"和"政民互动民意传递"则均为"政策议定场所"发生变化的主导要素,进而对间断-均衡模型的优化设想也得到验证。
[Purpose/Significance] Re-examining the classic policy change theory under the Internet public opinion will help promote the localization and knowledge evolution of policy change theories, and also help to make it better explain the policy changes in contemporary China.[Method/Process] Taking the Punctuated Equilibrium Model as an example, on the basis of fully examining the characteristics of the Internet public opinion, we tried to embed different lyric elements into the trigger path of the 'policy image' and 'policy venue' of the model, and then propose the optimization idea of the model. Then, we introduced an empirical test of the optimization concept by introducing 30 public opinion cases and using the qualitative comparative analysis method.[Result/Conclusion] The result shows that the two public opinion elements of 'event-triggered tongue change' and 'media public opinion superposition aggregation' can effectively trigger the change of 'policy image', while 'opinion leaders' preference guidance' and 'political-civil interaction of public opinion transmission' are both the dominant elements of the change of 'policy venue'. Therefore, the optimization idea of the model has also been verified.
作者
黄扬
李伟权
Huang Yang;Li Weiquan(School of Public Administration,Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期114-120,100,共8页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"大数据环境下社会舆情分析与决策支持研究"(编号:14ZDB166)
广东省自然科学基金项目"非常规突发事件中网络舆论传播公众逆反心理预防预警关键技术研究"(编号:2015A030313318)的研究成果之一
作者简介
黄扬(ORCID:0000-0002-9372-2015),男,1994年生,硕士研究生,研究方向:网络治理与公共政策;李伟权(ORCID:0000-0002-9978-6095),男,1974年生,副院长,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:网络治理与公共政策。
