摘要
通过构建黑龙江省国有林区林业生态、产业和民生系统协调发展评价的指标体系,结合变异系数法测算出林业生态、产业和民生各子系统及综合发展指数。在此基础上引入二元和三元系统耦合协调模型,并借助灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型预测2017—2020年三系统耦合协调发展水平。结果显示:黑龙江省国有林区林业生态、产业和民生各子系统发展指数表现出阶段性差异,但综合发展指数呈现出向好态势;三系统耦合协调度实现由低到高的梯度演进,但目前仍处于协调发展的一般水平;预计到2020年,三系统耦合协调发展水平将接近于中级协调,但距离优质协调还有一定差距。
This paper constructed the index system of coulpling coordination of forestry ecology,industry and people's livelihood in Heilongjiang state-owned forest area,and calculated the development level of these subsystems and multiple system by the coeficient of variation and weighting ratio.Dualistic and ternary coulpling coordination model were emploied in order to analyse the tendency of oulpling coordination.Finally,The level of ternary coulpling coordination was forecasted from 2017 to 2020 by GM(1,1)forecasting model.Results show development index differs from subsystem to subsystem in Heilongjiang state-owned forest area.However,multiple system tend to be good.Coulpling coordination level of forestry ecology industry and people's livelihood evolves along the low-to-high rank,but stay on so-so level now.It's estimated that coulpling coordination level of forestry ecology industry and people's livelihood will approach medium coordination though there is some distance to senior coordination.
作者
朱晓柯
万志芳
ZHU Xiao-ke;WAN Zhi-fang(School of Economics Management,Northest Forestry University,Harbin 150000,China;School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第2期55-63,共9页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目<基于产业生态系统的东北国有林区林业产业转型模式及路径研究>(17YJA630094)
关键词
森林生态
产业
民生
耦合协调模型
GM(1
1)预测模型
forestry ecology
industry
people's livelihood
coulpling coordination model
GM(1,1)forecast model
作者简介
朱晓柯,男,河南洛阳人,硕士生,研究方向:产业经济学;万志芳,女,黑龙江桦南人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:林业经济理论与政策。
