摘要
对于建国初期的新中国而言,比较优势战略实施的门槛限制,以及国家政权面临被颠覆的危险等客观约束条件内生出重工业优先发展战略。本文在历史与逻辑相统一的基础上,基于政府效用水平与重工业发展程度间的一致性,以政府效用为目标构建包含资本密集型部门与劳动密集型部门的动态最优化模型,研究重工业优先发展战略的合理性及其对经济增长的影响。本文发现:在政府效用最优化的动态路径上,重工业资本存量所占比重随着劳动密集型部门资本产出弹性的上升而下降,相反随着资本密集型部门资本产出弹性的上升而上升;重工业资本存量比重与全社会的总产出表现为倒"U"型关系。基于此,本文求解出重工业资本存量比重的临界值在0.4左右。
In the early days of the People s Republic of China,China had a large population but was weak nationally,had poor economic foundations,and suffered from uneven development across regions.There were a thousand things to be done and a variety of actual and potential internal and external challenges,such as the long-term blockade imposed by Western advanced industrial countries on China,which forced the prioritization of heavy industry in development plans.Statistics show that in the planned economy period,which prioritized heavy industry,China s real GDP achieved average annual growth of 6.1%between 1952 and 1978,despite the many political movements during this time.China emerged from this period with a complete industrial and national economic system and with considerable progress made in various industries.Despite the remarkable achievements,the development strategy of prioritizing heavy industry is not advised by mainstream economists as it leads to price distortions and the inefficient allocation of resources.Academics have argued about the correct historical stage for prioritizing the development of heavy industry.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the relationship between development plans that prioritize heavy industry and economic growth,as this will help to understand the political and economic logic of economic growth before and after reforms.Prioritizing the development of heavy industry has an inherent historical logic for late-developing countries.As a basic industry,heavy industry provides the necessary material and institutional structure for a later strategy built on comparative advantage.To achieve sustained and long-term economic growth,it is necessary to prioritize the development of heavy industry,which has positive externalities at certain stages,and to build a basic industrial system and national economic system that meet the“threshold condition”for the full implementation of a strategy based on comparative advantage.After crossing the threshold condition,the basic industries and infrastructure necessary for the industrialization of late-developing countries are present and the strategy of comparative advantage will inevitably be selected.Therefore,for a developing country with a large agricultural sector,the question is not whether to prioritize the development of heavy industry,but when should this stage begin?When should it end?What is the“threshold condition”?When should a country shift to a comparative advantage strategy?This article answers the questions of why prioritizing the development of heavy industry is necessary for long-term economic growth,what the“turning point”of the growth effect of heavy industry being sufficiently large is,and why a development strategy prioritizing heavy industry will give way to a strategy prioritizing comparative advantage.By unifying history and logic and based on the consistency between the government utility level and the development degree of heavy industry,this paper constructs a dynamic optimization model which includes a capital-intensive sector and a labor-intensive sector to study the rationality of a development strategy that prioritizes heavy industry and its influence on economic growth.The results show that on the dynamic path of government utility optimization,the proportion of the capital stock of heavy industry decreases with increases in the capital-output elasticity in labor-intensive sectors and increases with increases in the capital-output elasticity in capital-intensive sectors.The proportion of the capital stock of heavy industry and the total output of the whole society forms an inverted“U”relationship.To test the conclusions derived from the theoretical model,this paper uses data on 28 provinces from 1953 to 1978 to estimate the parameters based on the static and dynamic panel models.The results show that there is an inverted“U”relationship between the proportion of the capital stock of the heavy industry and the total output of the whole society and that the critical value for the proportion of the capital stock of the heavy industry acting on the total output of the whole society is about 0.4.
作者
邓宏图
徐宝亮
邹洋
DENG Hongtu;XU BaoLiang;ZOU Yang(Research Center of New Structural Economics,Guangzhou University,510006;Nankai Institute of Economics,300071;Economics School,Nankai University,300071)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第11期17-31,共15页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家社科基金重大攻关项目(17ZDA067)的阶段性成果
关键词
重工业优先发展战略
比较优势战略
经济增长
倒“U”型理论
Priority Development Strategy of Heavy Industry
Comparative Advantage Strategy
Economic Growth
Inverted“U”Theory
作者简介
邓宏图,电子信箱:dengyanggezhi@126.com.;通讯作者:徐宝亮,电子信箱:xubaoliang0702@126.com.;邹洋,电子信箱:yzou33@163.com.
