摘要
文章基于现有关于城市病研究中忽视人口分布影响因素并缺乏实证分析的现实背景,以2005-2012年上海市的区县数据为研究样本,从空间经济的视角对其人口分布的演变规律及其影响因素进行了实证研究。研究发现:(1)上海市人口的确已出现明显的郊区化趋势,且其人口分布的演变存在明显的空间排斥效应;(2)在考虑人口分布存在空间效应后,发现产业布局调整和收入水平的提高都加快了上海市人口的郊区化趋势,而交通设施、基础教育质量及医疗卫生服务水平的作用由于地域分布的差异则正好相反;(3)房价对上海市人口分布合理化的自主调节基本无效;(4)产业布局调整是加快上海市人口分布合理化的重要影响因素。因此,可以通过优化区域产业布局、强化郊区基础设施和公共服务设施建设等措施来实现上海市中心城区人口向郊区的有序分流。
Based on the real background that current study of city disease ignores influencing factors of population distribution and lacks empirical analysis,this paper makes an empirical study of the evolution of population distribution and its influencing factors from a spatial economic perspective by the county-level data in Shanghai from 2005to2012.It reaches the following results:firstly,Shanghai's population has indeed been featured by an obvious suburban trend,and the evolution of population distribution has clear spatial resistance effect;secondly,after taking spatial effect of population distribution into account,it shows that the adjustment to industry arrangement and the increase in income level have accelerated the suburban trend of Shanghai's population,but the effects of transport infrastructure,elementary education quality and health services just play the opposite role due to the differences in geographical distribution;thirdly,the autonomic regulation of housing prices on the rationalization of population distribution in Shanghai is basically futile;fourthly,the adjustment to industry arrangement is the important determinant of accelerating the rationalization of population distribution in Shanghai.Therefore,it can realize the orderly flow of Shanghai's population from urban areas to suburbs through optimizing regional industry arrangement,strengthening the construction of suburban infrastructure and public service facilities,etc.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第2期99-110,共12页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
上海市教委科研创新重点项目(13ZS051)
关键词
人口分布
空间面板模型
动态演变
上海市
population distribution
spatial panel model
dynamic evolution
Shanghai
