城市群人口空间分布与城镇化演变态势及发展趋势预测被引量：22

The Spatial Distribution of Population and the Evolutionary Characteristics of Urbanization in Chinese Urban Agglomerations

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摘要通过分析2000—2018年我国15个城市群人口和城镇格局的空间变化特征和态势,发现这一时期,城市群人口持续增加,但存在分布不均、集中趋势明显等问题,极化倾向的存在使城市群之间的人口规模差异具有进一步扩大的趋势;城市群的城镇化水平进一步提高,整体呈现以中城镇化水平为主的空间格局。进一步对2025—2035年人口和城镇化格局的演进趋势进行预测,表明我国人口分布结构指数将持续增长,城市群人口分布不均衡现象将加剧;城镇化将由以中城镇化水平为主变为以高城镇化水平为主;多数城市群的城镇化水平将突破70%的拐点,步入城镇化发展的中后期;成渝、中原等城市群人口增长迅速。因此,应在保持现有城市群规模大致不变的情况下,对城市群分类施策;进一步发挥城市群内核心城市的辐射带动作用,加速多核心城市体系的形成。 Based on census data and statistical yearbook data,this paper analyzes the spatial changes of population and urban pattern of 15 urban agglomerations in China from 2000 to 2018,and predicts the evolution trend of population and urban pattern from 2025 to 2035.The study found that:from 2000 to 2018,the population of urban agglomerations continued to increase,but there were problems such as uneven distribution and obvious concentration trends.The existence of polarization tended to further expand the population size difference between urban agglomerations;cities in urban agglomerations the level of urbanization has further improved,and the overall spatial pattern is mainly centered on the level of urbanization.From 2025 to 2035,the population distribution structure index will continue to grow,and the uneven population distribution of urban agglomerations will increase;urbanization will change from a medium-level urbanization level to a highlevel urbanization level;the urbanization level of most urban agglomerations will break through The 70%turning point has entered the middle and late stages of urbanization development;the population of urban agglomerations such as Chengyu and Zhongyuan has grown rapidly.Therefore,while keeping the scale of the existing urban agglomerations roughly unchanged,policies should be implemented for the classification of urban agglomerations;the radiating and leading role of the core cities within the urban agglomeration should be further utilized to accelerate the formation of a multi-core urban system.

作者肖金成洪晗 Xiao Jin-Cheng;Hong Han(Academy of Macroeconomic Research of China,Beijing 100038;University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488)

机构地区中国宏观经济研究院中国社会科学院大学

出处《经济纵横》 CSSCI 北大核心 2021年第1期19-30,2,共13页 Economic Review Journal

基金中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)研究生科研创新支持计划项目“城镇化进程中人口-经济-环境的空间分异及协同演化研究”(编号:2020-KY-050) 安徽省自然科学基金面上项目“互联网金融风险测度、溢出效应与投资者行为研究”(编号:1908085MG232)的成果

关键词城市群城镇化人口分布空间格局 Urban Agglomeration Urbanization Population Distribution Spatial Pattern

分类号 C924.2 [社会学—人口学] F299.21 [经济管理—国民经济]

作者简介肖金成,中国宏观经济研究院研究员;洪晗,中国社会科学院大学博士研究生。