摘要
干旱指数是研究干旱的重要工具,构建综合干旱指数是目前干旱监测、风险评估的前沿和趋势。本文基于阿基米德Copula函数,联合降雨(气象)、径流(水文)两种要素,构建了一种能够综合表征气象干旱和水文干旱的新型综合干旱指数MSDI_p,并用其表征渭河流域的干旱演变特征,且进一步对其背后的驱动力进行了探究。结果表明:(1)MSDI_p指数既能像标准化降水指数(SPI)一样敏锐地捕捉干旱的发生,也能像标准化径流指数(SRI)一样很好地刻画干旱的持续时间和结束,同时具备气象和水文两种干旱指数表征不同类型干旱的优势,能综合表征干旱演变特征;(2)受气候变化和人类活动影响,渭河流域过去50余年综合干旱呈显著增强趋势;(3)渭河流域综合干旱指数序列存在变异点(1994年),且未来流域干旱情势有加剧趋势;(4)太阳黑子和大气环流异常因子等对渭河流域综合干旱的发生有较大影响,其中太阳黑子活动的影响最强。且除直接影响外,太阳黑子还能通过影响大气环流异常因子进而对综合干旱的发生造成间接影响。
Drought index is an important tool for the study of drought,and the construction of comprehen-sive drought index is the frontier and trend of drought monitoring and risk assessment. Based on Archime-des＇ s Copula function,combined rainfall（Meteorology） and runoff（Hydrology）,we constructed a new com-prehensive drought index（MSDIp） that can comprehensively characterize the meteorology drought and hydrol-ogy drought. It is used to characterize the characteristics of drought evolution in the Weihe River basin.The results indicate that：（1） the MSDIp index can not only capture the occurrence of drought as well asthe standardized precipitation index（SPI）, but also describe the duration and termination of drought aswell as the standardized runoff index（SRI）. It possesses the advantages of both meteorological index andhydrological drought index in characterizing drought,which can comprehensively characterize the characteris-tics of drought evolution.（2） Influenced by climate changing and human activities, the comprehensivedrought in the Weihe basin has increased significantly over the past 50 years.（3） There is a change pointin the comprehensive drought index sequence of the Weihe basin（1994）, and in the future, the risk ofdrought is increasing.（4） Sunspot and atmospheric circulation anomaly factors have great influence on theoccurrence of comprehensive drought in the Weihe basin,of which sunspot activity is the strongest. In addi-tion to the direct influence, sunspot can also influence the occurrence of comprehensive drought by affect-ing the atmospheric circulation anomaly factors.
作者
张迎
黄生志
黄强
李沛
马岚
ZHANG Ying;HUANG Shengzhi;HUANG Qiang;LI Pei;MA Lan(State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-hydraulic in Arid Area,Institute of Water Resources and Hydro-electric Engineering,Xi＇an University of Technology,Xi＇an 710048,China)
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第6期703-714,共12页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51709221)
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405901-2)
国家重点实验室培育项目(2016ZZKT-11)
陕西省水利科技计划项目(2017slkj-19)
作者简介
张迎（1992-），女，硕士生，主要从事水文水资源研究。E—mail：245488044@qq．com;通信作者：黄生志（1988-），男，博士，副教授，主要从事干旱的形成及传播机理、水文预报、变异诊断与重构等研究。E—mail：huangshengzhi7788@126．com
