摘要
目的描述2009-2013年期间南京市流感的流行病学规律和特点。方法流感样本来源于流感样病例,利用逆转录聚合酶链反应确定阳性病例以及流感分型。采用Excel 2007整理数据和SPSS 19.0进行统计分析。结果 2009-2013年间,南京地区共有流感样病例17 906例,其中阳性2 990例,流感阳性率为16.7%。流感阳性率随月份、季度和年份而改变,南京阳性率高峰主要出现在秋冬季,也伴有一些夏季的高峰。甲型流感主要在夏季、秋季和冬季流行,乙型流感主要在冬季流行。2009-2013年南京优势毒株为甲型H1N1,H3N2和乙型流感。H3N2通常在秋季和夏季达到流行高峰,甲型H1N1大流行在秋季出现高峰,乙型流感主要在冬季流行。南京地区在秋季和初冬出现流行高峰,但有些年份,在夏季和初秋出现H3N2流行高峰。采用移动流行病学方法建立标准模型,一般流感在南京的流行大约持续11周,流行阈值为25.21%,流感阳性的背景率为5.82%。结论南京流感高峰通常一年发生一次,但在有些年份中,会出现两个流感高峰时期。
Objective To describe the epidemiological pattern and characteristics of influenza in Nanjing for the period from 2009 to 2013. Methods Influenza samples were collected from influenza like illness（ ILI） patients,the positive cases and influenza subtype were determined by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Excel 2007 and SPSS19. 0 were used to analyze the data. Results The influenza positive rate for the period from 2009 to 2013 in Nanjing was16. 7% with 2 990 positives out of a total of 17 906 samples. The positive rate varied by month,quarter（ season）,and year describing a sequence of peaks presenting primarily in autumn and winter with some summer peak periods. Influenza A was dominant in summer and autumn while B was dominant in winter. The Dominant subtypes in Nanjing in 2009- 2013 were 2009 pandemic H1N1,H3N2,and influenza B. H3N2 generally peaked in autumn or summer,2009 pandemic H1N1 peaked in autumn,and influenza B mainly occurred in winter. The Nanjing influenza season peaks were mostly in autumn and early winter,but also in some years,summer and early autumn peaks of H3N2. Standard modeling using the moving epidemic method showed that the typical or nonpandemic influenza season in Nanjing lasted approximately 11 weeks and had an epidemic threshold of 25. 21% and a background rate of 5. 82% positive cases of influenza. Conclusions The peak influenza season in Nanjing usually occurs once a year but in some years there may be two peak periods of influenza activity.
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第1期3-7,共5页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
国家自然科学基金(81273143)
关键词
流感
人
流行病学
逆转录聚合酶链反应
Influenza
human
Epidemiology
Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction
作者简介
Michael James Cunningham（1983-），男，美国，在读硕士研究生。主要研究方向：传染病流行病学。
【通讯作者】卫平民，E-mail：mpw1963@126．com
