摘要
低渗致密气藏投资开发具有较高的经济风险,开发前景备受关注与质疑。采用蒙特卡洛法并借助crystal ball软件为计算工具对国内典型致密气区块A开展了研究。建立了致密气单井经济评价模型并确定天然气价格,单井综合投资,单井累计产量,经营成本为随机变量且服从三角分布。通过控制估计误差,不断优化模拟过程,成功实现了11 236次净现值(净现值)与内部收益率(FIRR)的随机抽样模拟。计算结果表明净现值大于零的概率为92%,内部收益率大于行业标准收益率8%的概率为68%,大于15%的概率仅为20%,具有一定的经济风险,敏感性分析表明天然气价格与单井累计产量是影响开发收益的主要因素。
The economic prospect of tight gas remains uncertain for its high investment risk. In this paper, the monte carlo therapy was introduced, and the crystal ball software was em- ployed to appraise the development of a typical tight gas field,area A.The economic evaluation model for single well was established and the gas price, the investment, the production and the operating cost were defined as random variables with triangle distribution.In the study, the simulation process is continuously optimized by controlling the estimation error, and the random sampling simulation of NPV and FIRR are realized 11 236 times success- fully. The results show that the probability with NPV greater than zero is 92 %, the probability with FIRR greater than 8 % is 68 %,and with FIRR greater than 15 % is only 20 %, which indicates that the economic risk indeed exists. And sensitivity analysis shows natural gas price and the production are major affecting factors.
出处
《石油化工应用》
CAS
2016年第9期5-8,共4页
Petrochemical Industry Application
基金
国家科技重大专项"大型气藏开发规律与开发技术对策研究"资助项目
项目编号:2011ZX05015-005
作者简介
张静平（1981-），博士，工程师，研究方向为天然气战略规划与经济评价，邮箱：zhangjp69@petrochina．com．cn。
