摘要
鉴于项目前期的投资风险分析结论直接决定着项目的投资决策,以某拟建水电项目为例,建立NPV模型,采用德尔菲法确定输入变量概率分布,运用Crystal Ball软件,将蒙特卡罗模拟法引入到水电项目投资风险分析中。结果表明,经过60 000次模拟得出的该水电项目净现值均值为15.1亿元,净现值大于零的累计概率为99.87%,风险度为0.001 4,销售收入与净现值相关度最大,正相关度为0.75。可见该项目具有较强的获利和抗风险能力,同时采用Crystal Ball软件进行风险分析简单易用、实用价值高,为水电项目的投资决策提供了依据。
Conclusions of pre-construction risk analysis will directly determine the investment decisions. A proposed hydropower project was taken as an example, a NPV model was established and the probability distribution of input variables was determined by Delphi method. On this basis, the Monte Carlo simulation method was introduced into the risk analysis of hydropower project with the Crystal Ball software. Through 60 000 simulations, the results show that the mean NPV is 1.51 billion yuan; the cumulative probability of NPV being greater than zero is 99.87%; the degree of risk is 0. 001 4, and the positive correlation between sale revenue and NPV is 0.75. It can be seen that the project is with strong profitability and risk-resisting ability; meanwhile, the applicability of employing Crystal Ball software in risk analysis is validated. So, the study can offer a referential basis for the investment decision.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2015年第12期153-156,共4页
Water Resources and Power
作者简介
李晓英（1978-），女，博士、硕导，研究方向为水资源系统规划与动能经济，E—mail：lixy3@hhu．edu．cn
