摘要
针对中国经济正在出现劳动成本快速上升的现象,使用来自中国286个地级市2001—2010年的面板数据,用土地供应作为房价的工具变量,并结合东部—中西部边界样本的对比,在有效控制内生性可能导致的模型估计偏误之后,研究房价对于工资的带动作用,结果发现:2003年以来,政府开始实行倾向于中西部的土地供应政策,相应压缩东部的土地供应,造成东部地区房价快速上升,并进而推升了东部地区的工资上涨,而这一效应在中西部和2003年之前的东部则不显著。这表明,忽视地理对于经济发展的关键作用,用行政手段来干预土地资源在区域间的配置,可能对经济发展效率和竞争力产生负面影响。
Aiming at the rapid increase in labor costs in the Chinese economy and using panel data for 286 prefectural-level cities from 2001 to 2010,we made land supply the instrumental variable in housing prices and compared boundary samples for the eastern and the central and western provinces.After effectively controlling for possible model estimation error arising from endogeneity,we examined housing prices as a driver of wage growth.Our findings show that when,from 2003,the government started to implement a land supply policy biased towards the central and western regions,with a corresponding reduction in land supply in the east,the result was a rapid increase in housing prices that led to a rise in wages in the eastern region.This effect was not significant in the central and western regions or in the pre-2003 eastern region.This reflects the fact that ignoring the key role of geographical factors and using administrative measures to intervene in regional land supply may have a negative effect on economic efficiency and competitiveness.
出处
《中国社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第5期59-83,204-205,共25页
Social Sciences in China
基金
国家社会科学基金(13&ZD015
12AZD045)
国家自然科学基金(71133004
71273289)项目的资助
"当代中国经济与社会工作室"的成果
作者简介
陆铭，上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院教授（上海200052）；
张航，复旦大学经济学院硕士研究生（上海200433）；
梁文泉，复旦大学经济学院博士研究生（上海200433）。
