摘要
随着中国房地产业进入增量收缩的时代,不同城市间住房价格、供需以及人口变迁之间的关系表现出明显的长期差异性,厘清这些差异的复杂缘由是政府制定未来住房政策的必要依据。本文将住房供给、住房需求、人口变迁和房价纳入统一的复杂动态系统进行研究,基于我国地级市和省会城市的房地产数据,通过寻找变量间的因果关系,从理论上给出上述变量之间互动机制的解释。基于省会和地级市的城市差异,对理论机制的实证检验结果显示:人口规模增加推升了省会城市的投资需求和弹性供给(相机抉择供给),对普通地级城市影响则不大;省会城市的高房价促进了人口流入,而普通地级城市则相反。建议未来省会城市在应对人口规模增加时,大力构建公共住房保障体系,满足居民居住需求,抑制投资需求,打击投机性供给,做好增量;普通地级城市则不宜大拆大建,而应盘活住房存量,避免过剩。
As China’s real estate industry enters an era of incremental contraction,the complex long-term interaction between housing prices,supply and demand,and demographic changes in different cities needs to be clarified.In this paper,housing supply,housing demand,population change and housing price are integrated into a unified complex dynamic system.Based on the real estate data of prefecture-level cities and provincial capitals in China,the causal relationship between the variables is searched,and the interaction mechanism between the above variables is theoretically explained.Based on the differences between provincial capitals and prefecture-level cities,the empirical test results of theoretical mechanism show that the increase of population size promotes the investment demand and speculative supply of provincial capitals,but has little effect on prefecture-level cities.High housing prices in provincial cities have boosted population inflows,while prefecture-level cities have done the opposite.It suggested that provincial capital cities should build public housing security system to meet residents’demand for housing,restrain investment demand,strike speculative supply and increase population.Prefecture-level cities should not be demolished and built,but should revitalize the housing stock to avoid excess.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2022年第11期43-48,209,共7页
Price:Theory & Practice
关键词
住房价格
住房供给
住房需求
人口变迁
housing price
housing supply
housing demand
population change
作者简介
通讯作者:沈冰阳
